It wasn’t easy; it took longer than expected, and the process required a series of secret negotiations and backroom side deals that were still being worked out shortly before members started voting on the legislation. But Senate Republicans just barely passed their far-right megabill on Tuesday. As my MSNBC colleague Hayes Brown summarized:
Senators spent all day and night Monday on the floor, finalizing the grab bag of MAGA demands and fiscal conservative policies while attempting to assuage moderate GOP members. In the end, the bill passed 50-50, with three Republicans and all Democrats voting against final passage and Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie.
Three GOP senators — Maine’s Susan Collins, Kentucky’s Rand Paul and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis — sided with a unanimous Senate Democratic conference against the inaptly named One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Opponents needed just one more Republican to break ranks to derail the reconciliation package, but Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski stuck with her party at the end.
The radical and regressive proposal now heads back to the Republican-led House, where party leaders hope to act quickly in order to have the completed legislation on Donald Trump’s desk by the president’s arbitrary and self-imposed July 4 deadline.
Is the lower chamber likely to approve the Senate’s version? Yes. Is it a sure thing? No. As an NBC News report summarized:
The legislation faces hurdles in the House, where Republicans can similarly only spare three votes. An earlier version of the bill passed by a one-vote margin, and the Senate changes have drawn criticism from some GOP lawmakers. That includes the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, which is rebelling against the lack of spending cuts to pay for the bill. Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y., came out against the scaled-back state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap in the bill; it increases the limit to $40,000 for five years, then cuts it back down to $10,000. And Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., who represents a swing district, slammed the Senate bill’s more aggressive Medicaid funding cuts.
Indeed, shortly before the Senate voted, Republican Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina told PBS News that he considered the new version of the bill to be “a non-starter,” adding, “I don’t see how we pass this by Friday.”
Norman isn’t the only one making comments like these. As Politico reported, a variety of far-right House members negotiated a budget framework with Speaker Mike Johnson — a deal that made it possible for the lower chamber to pass its version of the bill last month — and the Senate version largely ignores that side deal.
In fact, the House Freedom Caucus issued a statement the day before the Senate vote that read in part, “The Senate must make major changes and should at least be in the ballpark of compliance with the agreed upon House budget framework.”
Senate Republicans did not, in fact, agree to “major changes” to satisfy the Freedom Caucus’ concerns.
What’s more, they’re not the only relevant players. Just last week, 16 House Republicans — almost all representing competitive districts — publicly condemned the Medicaid cuts in the Senate Republicans’ version.
In case this weren’t quite enough, Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia told Steve Bannon after the Senate vote, “This is far from over.” She added that she does not believe her party’s leadership in the House has the votes to pass the Senate’s version.
At this point, some readers might be wondering, “If so many House Republicans raised concerns, and their support will be necessary to get the legislation to the White House, why did Senate Republicans ignore them?” The answer is simple: Party leaders are simply assuming that these House Republicans will cave, because they always do. And that might very well happen again. Those who’ve placed bets lately on House GOP members sticking to their guns have lost money. But if just four of the Republicans who’ve balked at the Senate version of the legislation follow through, then the party will have a real problem on its hands. (The fact that the bill is wildly unpopular, and House members will have to confront voters again next year, will no doubt enter the minds of many on-the-fence incumbents, too.) As the dust settles, the GOP-led House has a handful options: It can (1) pass the Senate bill, as is, without changing so much as a comma, and send it to Trump for his signature; (2) pass a new version and send it back to the Senate for consideration; (3) demand a conference committee for the House and Senate to work out the differences between the competing versions of the bill; or (4) kill the bill. Watch this space. This post has been updated with additional quotes from GOP members.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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