At the signing ceremony for the Republican Party’s domestic policy megabill, Donald Trump claimed the legislation was “the most popular bill ever signed in the history of our country.” Even by this president’s standards, this was hilariously untrue: The inaptly named One Big Beautiful Bill Act was actually one of the least popular major legislative proposals in recent history. Indeed, even on Capitol Hill, it faced bipartisan opposition in the House and Senate — even some of the GOP members who voted for it said they didn’t like it.
Trump has an unnerving habit of making up approval ratings for himself, and now, evidently, he’s doing the same thing about his agenda.
At the same White House event on Friday, however, the president kept going, claiming to have special insights into public attitudes about the GOP package (“The people are happy, they’re happy,” he declared) the day after he told an Iowa audience he believes the unpopular megabill will be used against Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections.
As it turns out, Democrats have a very different perspective on this. The Washington Post reported:
Democrats are planning to make President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package central to their efforts to retake the House in next year’s midterm elections, arguing that its deep cuts to Medicaid and food assistance put them at a distinct advantage over Republicans trying to sell the bill’s tax and immigration provisions to voters.
The Democratic strategy obviously makes sense: The GOP package is filled with all kinds of far-right priorities that are not at all popular with the American mainstream — most notably tax breaks for the wealthy, to be paid for through health care cuts, including historic cuts to Medicaid. Historical patterns suggest Republicans are likely to face electoral headwinds next year anyway, but if Democrats and their allies can convince voters that an accurate condemnation of the radical megabill is true, conditions will be even worse for GOP candidates and officials.
But looking ahead, the politically potent message isn’t just about the cuts Republicans are eager to impose, it’s also about the timing of the cuts.
“At the core of Republicans’ newly finalized domestic policy package is an important political calculation,” The New York Times noted last week. “It provides its most generous tax breaks early on and reserves some of its most painful benefit cuts until after the 2026 midterm elections.”
This was, of course, part of a deliberate political calculus: GOP officials were no doubt aware of the fact that if their health care cuts, for example, took effect immediately, the public backlash would come that much sooner.
But in the process, Republicans also raised the stakes and offered Democrats an obvious messaging opportunity: “If there’s a Republican Congress,” the ads are likely to say, “health care cuts will take effect. If there’s a Democratic Congress, Democrats will fight Trump and stop the health care cuts from taking effect. Vote accordingly.”
I saw one sharp observer suggest last week, “The Democratic Party should distribute countdown clocks to members showing days (or hours) until Medicaid cuts kick in. They should make videos and campaign ads posed in front of these clocks.”
Don’t be surprised if the party takes advantage of opportunities like these in the coming months.
