Before a jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felonies, there was a fair amount of polling on the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election. There was, however, an important caveat hanging overhead.
As we discussed last week, pollsters routinely ask the public for their opinions about things that have happened. The task becomes a little trickier when pollsters ask about expected opinions related to things that haven’t yet happened.
Now that the trial has concluded, and the public knows that the former president has been found guilty, the survey data takes on an even greater significance.
This is not to say that all of the caveats are gone — early data can sometimes be less reliable as the public takes time to digest major developments — but those eager to know what Trump’s guilty verdict means in an electoral context can and should take note of the latest data.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at the latest surveys, each of which were released over the last couple of days.
ABC News/Ipsos poll: In this survey, a 50% plurality said that the jury in Trump’s case made the right call; a 51% majority concluded that the former president intentionally did something illegal in this case; and a 49% plurality believes that the presumptive Republican nominee should end his candidacy as a result of the guilty verdict.
The same data found President Joe Biden with a two-point lead over Trump, after having found the two major-party candidates tied before the trial.
Reuters poll: In this survey, 10% of registered Republican voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump now that he’s been found guilty of felonies. Similarly, 25% of registered independent voters said the same thing. The same data also found Biden leading by two points.
Morning Consult poll: In this survey, a 54% majority approved of the verdict in Trump’s case, and 15% of Republican voters said the former president should end his candidacy as a result of being found guilty. Also notable: Roughly 7 in 10 voters in this poll said Trump’s other pending criminal trials should be resolved before voters cast ballots in the fall. CBS News/YouGov poll: In this survey, the outlet recontacted the Americans polled before the verdict. While few changed their minds, the results showed that a 54% majority agreed that Trump’s New York trial was fair; a 57% majority agreed with the jury’s verdict; and a 51% majority said Trump is unfit for the presidency. When House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse a few weeks ago to show his support for his party’s presumptive nominee, the Louisiana Republican made a bold assumption about public attitudes. The GOP congressional leader began by dismissing the trial as a “sham,” before adding, “I think everybody in the country can see that for what it is.” It was a dubious assertion at the time. It’s worse now.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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