Pollsters routinely ask the public for their opinions about things that have happened. The task becomes a little trickier when pollsters ask about expected opinions related to things that haven’t yet happened.
And yet, there’s been plenty of polling in recent months in which Americans were asked an important question: If Donald Trump were convicted of felonies, how would it affect their opinions about the 2024 presidential race?
There’s quite a bit of evidence to consider, and it’s evolved over time.
In November, a New York Times/Siena College poll found President Joe Biden trailing Trump in five key battleground states, but those deficits turned to advantages when voters were asked about a possible Trump criminal conviction.
In December, a national YouGov poll found Biden and Trump tied. The same poll, however, found Biden with a seven-point advantage in response to a potential Trump criminal conviction.
In January, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found more than half of swing-state voters wouldn’t vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime.
In February, an NBC News poll found Trump with a five-point lead over Biden, but if Trump was found guilty and convicted of a felony, the Democratic incumbent had a two-point lead. Around the same time, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll also showed Biden gaining several points as a result of a Trump conviction.
In April, a Marquette University Law School poll showed an eight-point swing in Biden’s direction in the event of a Trump conviction. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released around the same time pointed in a very similar direction.
And in May, the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll found, “Roughly 1 in 6 voters (17%) said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.” The headline on the NPR report read, “Trump verdict would likely move only a small number of votes, poll finds.” That’s true, but it’s also highly relevant. By most measures, the 2024 presidential race is extremely close. Even if we were to assume that the presumptive Republican nominee’s conviction had a small impact, a modest shift might very well make the difference in deciding who wins the election. In his latest newsletter, The New York Times Nate Cohn noted, “In a close election in a closely divided country, any losses [for Trump] could be pivotal.” Watch this space.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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