In late 2024, a national Gallup poll found the number of voters who identified as Republicans had reached 47% — a high unseen in roughly three decades — giving the GOP a four-point advantage over those who identified as Democratic. For many observers, it was evidence to suggest Republicans were well positioned for Election Day 2024, which did, in fact, go quite well for GOP officials and candidates.
One year later, Republicans have surrendered that edge — and then some. The latest national survey from Gallup found largely the opposite results, with Democrats reclaiming their advantage over Republicans, 48% to 40%.
If the election results from 2025 weren’t enough to make GOP insiders nervous, poll results like these ought to add to the party’s anxiety.
But just as notable was the shift in Americans’ ideological identification. From the Gallup analysis:
As usual, more Americans in 2025 described their views as ‘very conservative’ or ‘conservative’ (35%) than as ‘very liberal’ or ‘liberal’ (28%), with 33% identifying as ‘moderate.’ However, the seven-point conservative advantage over liberals in 2025 is the smallest Gallup has measured in annual averages dating back to 1992. It is only the third time the conservative lead has been less than 10 points.
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Over time, more Americans have identified as liberal (up from 17% in 1992) and fewer as moderate (down from 43%), with conservative identification more steady.
In 1992, Gallup found only 17% of American voters described themselves as liberal. By 1996, that figure had dipped a little lower, sinking to 16%.
But as 2025 came to an end and the number of people describing themselves as moderates and conservatives sank, the number of Americans embracing the “liberal” label climbed to 28% — the highest total since Gallup started asking the question in the early 1990s.
Liberals are by no means in a dominant position (at least not yet), and while these ideological labels are open to interpretation, liberals are still outnumbered, even as the margins shrink.
The trend line, however, suggests the left is headed in an encouraging direction, which many observers probably wouldn’t have predicted a year ago, when Republicans were seen as ascendant.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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