When Joe Biden passed the presidential torch back to Donald Trump, the Republican had reason to celebrate the economic conditions he was inheriting. In the closing weeks of 2024, a Wall Street Journal analysis described the state of the Biden-era economy as “remarkable,” which coincided with a Bloomberg analysis that said, “The nation is experiencing a dream combination of strong growth and low inflation.”

There was more where that came from. A month before Election Day 2024, The New York Times reported that the U.S. job market was “as healthy as it has ever been” — as in, in the history of the United States — and described economic growth as “robust.” A few days later, The Washington Post’s Heather Long explained in a column, “We are living through one of the best economic years of many people’s lifetimes.” The same day, Politico described the status quo as “a dream economy.”

The Economist, a leading British publication, also described the U.S. economy as “the envy of the world,” adding that the American economy “has left other rich countries in the dust.”

Now, however, we’re two-thirds of the way into 2025, and the news is far less encouraging. Economic growth has been sluggish, and stubborn inflation rates are inching higher, not lower. U.S. manufacturing, ostensibly a White House priority, is faltering badly.

And then, of course, there’s the job market, which keeps getting uglier, with job growth falling to its lowest levels since the Great Recession. Consider this chart showing job creation through the first eight months of the year since 2010. (The blue columns reflect years in which there were Democratic administrations, while the red columns reflect Trump’s terms. Because of the pandemic, I’m excluding 2020. For those who might be curious, the data from 2010 was just a smidge better than 2025, though it might not be immediately obvious in the image.)

The problem, in other words, goes well beyond a single discouraging employment report.

The White House is certainly aware of the Trump Slump, and it’s come up with a variety of responses. Members of the president’s team have suggested that officials at the Bureau of Labor Statistics might be guilty of “political bias.” Others have blamed the Federal Reserve. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said the unemployment rate is “statistically nonexistent,” which is an odd way of describing a jobless rate that just reached a four-year high. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said unnamed people are “just trying to create noise against the president.” (I’m not sure what that means.)

But at the heart of the White House’s argument is a different kind of claim: Team Trump wants Americans to look forward to a brighter future, which has not yet arrived.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the economy to “pick up” later this year. Lutnick expects good news to arrive in “six months” (or maybe 12). Kevin Hassett, who leads the White House National Economic Council, pointed to next summer.

The president himself said last week that the public can expect to see economic progress next year, though a day later, he pointed instead to 2027.

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Even if the American mainstream were in a generous mood and voters were inclined to wait for the economy to eventually strengthen, there are a few obstacles to keep in mind.

Right off the bat, there’s a political contradiction to overcome: Trump brags on a nearly daily basis about having created a “hot” domestic economy, recently boasting, in reference to economic data, “We’re seeing phenomenal numbers. … I mean, really phenomenal numbers.”

The president can say he is delivering on the economy, or he can say he’ll eventually deliver on the economy, but when he pushes both lines simultaneously, there’s a problem.

Relatedly, Trump promised to deliver an immediate economic boost upon returning to power. It’s a little late to move the goalposts.

Finally, there’s the inconvenient fact that the Republican White House doesn’t have anything resembling an actual plan — beyond waiting for failed policies to eventually, maybe, hopefully produce different results.