House Speaker Mike Johnson has reason to celebrate. The Louisiana Republican worked hard to win another term with the gavel, and he prevailed. He wanted Donald Trump’s backing, and he received it. He set out to keep several GOP factions united on the first day of the new Congress — a task made more difficult in the wake of a recent intraparty backlash — and the fissures were kept to a minimum.
But as the dust settles on an unexpectedly dramatic process on the House floor, the emerging image isn’t as clear as it might seem at first glance. The good news for Johnson is that he’ll lead the Republican-led House in the new Congress. The bad news for Johnson is that he’ll lead the Republican-led House in the new Congress.
The just-completed 118th Congress was, to a historic degree, a cover-your-eyes embarrassment. As the 119th Congress gets underway, the House GOP majority will be even smaller than it was last year — and it’s poised to shrink further.
As things stand, Republicans have 219 seats, four more than the 215 House Democrats. In the very near future, however, two House GOP members — Elise Stefanik of New York and Michael Waltz — are poised to give up their seats to join the Trump administration.
Yes, there will be special elections to fill those vacancies, as well as the vacancy left by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and GOP officials like their chances of keeping those seats. But as a practical matter, in the first few months of the new Congress, the balance of power will be 217-215.
As a matter of arithmetic, on key votes in which Democrats are united in opposition, that means the House GOP conference will have to be completely united to succeed. If even one Republican member balks, it will be enough to derail the party’s legislative endeavors. (A 216-216 vote constitutes failure. Bills need a majority to advance.) Or as an NBC News report summarized:
In other words, House Republicans will have a zero-vote margin for defection in the crucial early months of Trump’s presidency. Even when the party returns to full strength, the House majority could have trouble passing party-line legislation if a handful of members fall ill, have scheduling conflicts or experience weather delays preventing them from getting to Washington in time for key votes.
What’s more, the legislative math isn’t the only problem: House Republicans in recent years have become even more hostile toward compromise, more disdainful of bipartisan cooperation, more inviting of crises such as government shutdowns and debt ceiling showdowns, and more indifferent to the needs of GOP members from competitive, blue-leaning congressional districts.
Johnson struggled badly to lead his conference last year, routinely leaning on members of the House Democratic minority to conduct routine governance, and there’s no reason to believe his challenges will be any easier in 2025. On the contrary, with a smaller majority, his odds of legislative success are worse. In recent weeks, Johnson has repeatedly appeared on conservative media outlets and boasted about his party’s prospects in the near future. “Look, we’re excited about this,” the Louisiana Republican declared three weeks ago. “We’ve demonstrated already that we can govern with a small majority.” The available evidence points in the opposite direction: The House Republican majority had effectively no accomplishments to speak of in the last Congress, and while the broader circumstances are clearly different — the GOP will lead the Senate and White House in 2025, which was not the case in 2024 — Johnson still hasn’t demonstrated that he and his team “can govern with a small majority.” To be sure, the House speaker had reason to celebrate his unexpected success when his members agreed to let him keep his gavel, though it’s tough not to wonder whether he’ll be equally pleased when his conference tries its hand at governing again.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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