With two weeks to go, the race for the White House may hinge on whether Donald Trump can cash in a big bet.
Spurning a traditional playbook of welcoming back estranged Republicans and fighting for votes in the middle, Trump is instead trying to create a winning coalition by adding new, younger voters who embrace him for his very defiance of what’s expected of a politician.
The problem? No one knows whether they’ll actually show up.
Trump’s strategy relies on what campaigns call low-propensity voters: those who don’t consistently participate in elections. There’s no question there is a large population of young, male, often white (though not exclusively) Americans who find Trump’s antics and tough guy schtick appealing and think Democrats are a drag. Trump and his campaign have methodically wooed this bro vote; it’s no doubt played a role in his strength with men in the polls.
So-called Nikki Haley voters would have been an obvious place for Trump to go fishing for votes outside of his base, but his ego wouldn’t allow him to seek the approval of those who spurned him in the primary. Instead, Trump is hoping his largely outsourced voter contact operation, as well as a legion of online influencers, can convince young men to get off YouTube and into a polling place. Every campaign tries to squeeze out as many marginal votes as it can, but no recent one has banked so heavily on a low-participation voting bloc to turn out. If Trump wins, it may be because he’s once again figured out a new formula that didn’t require him to moderate his impulses.
Brendan Buck
Brendan Buck is an NBC News and MSNBC political analyst. He was previously counselor to former House Speaker Paul Ryan and press secretary to former House Speaker John Boehner. 
