Debate weeks are made up of unparalleled political theater, and the week leading up to Wednesday’s debate has been no exception. The debate in Simi Valley, California, amounts to a play unfolding over the week in three acts with the biggest stars, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, managing to hijack attention from the debate stage they aren’t even on.
Act One: Setting the Stage in Michigan
Everything in presidential campaigns starts too early and goes on too long, and debates are no exception.
Everything in presidential campaigns starts too early and goes on too long, and debates are no exception. The opening salvo in Wednesday’s debate was fired more than a week ago when Trump said he would eschew the debate at Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to visit Michigan autoworkers.
It was a smart move. He picked a fight with Biden on the president’s turf — that is, in a state Biden took from Trump and in front of a labor audience Biden has worked to win over. Trump’s not-so-subtle message to his Republican primary opponents is that the game has moved on. The calendar may say it’s 2023, but, with that Detroit pivot, Trump started the 2024 general election and hand-to-hand combat with Biden.
Act Two: The Debate
With the noisy exception of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Trump’s Republican opponents have thus far proven to be more of a chorus than competitors. Despite the praise former United Nations Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley won for her strong performance in the first debate in Milwaukee, without question, the most important moment in Milwaukee, and the biggest boost yet to Trump, was when every candidate on the stage (save two!) said they’d support Trump as the Republican nominee even if he were convicted of a crime.
Honestly, can you blame the man for acting as if he’s already the nominee with that kind of endorsement from his opponents?
The second debate still matters. What happens on the stage can shape the general election, if not the primaries. Effective hits from Christie can sour independent voters and moderate Republicans on Trump and boost Biden. Moderate language about abortion from Haley may cost her support with conservative voters in Iowa but make her an appealing running mate for Trump, who’s trying to distance himself from his own abortion record.
A flat performance from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would most likely boost Trump as it reveals that there never really was an alternative to Trump. The one thing this debate and future debates are unlikely to do, however, is affect the Republican primary campaign. The second debate still matters. What happens on the stage can shape the general election, if not the primaries. A good debate strategy consists of three components: 1) setting the stage pre-debate for the fight you want to have with your opponents, 2) executing well on game day and 3) using the debate to start a fight that will help you in the following days. Biden won’t be one of the combatants onstage, but he had a debate strategy that won on all three accounts. He jumped Trump with a successful visit with autoworkers ahead of Wednesday night, did well on his game day in Michigan and used “big lie” and anti-abortion rights stances from the Republican debate to set up his planned pro-democracy speech Thursday in Arizona. It’s a strong way to end the week, which is why Trump couldn’t let it be the last word. Like Biden, he’ll be heading west after the debate. He’s making a trip Friday to California.
Jennifer Palmieri
Jennifer Palmieri was the communications director for Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. 
Act Three: Arizona and More?
