Donald Trump’s approach to public opinion research has never been altogether healthy. The president has long insisted, for example, that polls are “fake,” unless he likes the results, in which case they’re real.

It’s the sort of perspective that led the Republican to argue before the 2024 election that it should be “illegal” to release polling data he disapproves of, followed by Trump filing an actual lawsuit against a news organization after the election for publishing the results of a survey that bothered him.

As the second month of his second term gets underway, the president’s perspective on polls has reached the point at which he’s generously making up an approval rating for himself. HuffPost noted:

President Donald Trump’s honeymoon period in the polls seems to be over ― but he thinks he’s more popular than ever. “I had an approval rating today of 71 and another one of 69,” Trump bragged at the Republican governors dinner in Washington on Thursday. “I have not heard of those numbers before.”

For the record, he did not appear to be kidding.

Of course, the reason the president has “not heard of those numbers before” is that the polls he referenced do not exist outside of his imagination.

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There’s plenty of survey data available, but literally none of the publicly available data has Trump’s approval rating anywhere close to 70%. On the contrary, several major recent polls have shown the president’s support slipping below 50% — which is practically unheard of one month out from Inauguration Day.

• The latest national poll from the Pew Research Center found Trump “underwater,” with 47% approving of the president and 51% disapproving.
• The latest national poll from Quinnipiac University pointed in a similar direction: 45% approve, 49% disapprove.
• The latest national poll from Gallup also pointed in a similar direction: 45% approve, 51% disapprove. The report on the results added, “Trump’s job approval rating is 15 points below the historical average for all other elected presidents in mid-February since 1953.”
• The latest national Washington Post-Ipsos poll also pointed in a similar direction: 43% approve, 48% disapprove.
• The latest national poll from CNN also pointed in a similar direction: 47% approve, 52% disapprove.
• The latest national Reuters/Ipsos poll also pointed in a similar direction: 44% approve, 51% disapprove.

The significance of this extends well beyond Trump’s routine dishonesty. After all, it’s not as if his approval rating is the only thing the president is lying about. What’s more, this isn’t just about ego or the Republican’s apparent obsession with being liked.

Rather, the reason this matters is that he needs people to believe the lie. His political success depends on it. As we’ve discussed, members of Congress — who, unlike the incumbent president, have to worry about re-election — care a great deal about the prevailing political winds. If the public really were rallying behind Trump and he really did enjoy 70% support, Republican lawmakers would be that much more inclined to follow his lead, while Democratic lawmakers in competitive districts would be that much less inclined to put up a fight against the White House agenda.

In other words, the more voters turn against Trump, the harder it becomes for him to get his way, and the greater his need to make up approval ratings out of whole cloth, hoping people will fall for the transparent con.