Republican Randy Fine has won the special election in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, prevailing in the longtime Republican stronghold despite unexpectedly fierce competition from Democrat Josh Weil, NBC News projects.

The special election to fill the seat held by Michael Waltz, who left Congress to become President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, turned out to be unusually competitive. GOP leaders were alarmed that Weil, an educator, had outraised Fine, a state senator, by millions of dollars. Early voting data suggested strong Democratic turnout, though those numbers are typically unreliable indicators of the final results.

Democrats had steered clear of predicting that Weil would flip the seat, but his showing could signal trouble ahead for Republicans. Counties in the 6th Congressional District have long leaned red — Trump, who endorsed Fine, carried the district by more than 30 points in the 2024 election, while Waltz easily won re-election.

Fine was leading Weil 54%-46% when the NBC News Decision Desk projected him as the winner with 73% of the expected vote in.

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The 6th District race was one of two special elections in Florida on Tuesday. The GOP would have held on to its razor-thin majority in the House no matter the outcome of Tuesday’s special elections, but legislating would have become even more difficult had it lost either seat.

The Florida elections, along with the state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, are the first to take place since Trump returned to the White House. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said last week that the attention on the Florida races was a warning sign for Republicans and predicted that Democrats would take back control of the House next year.