Police endorsement for Gallego adds to Kari Lake’s woes in Arizona Senate race

As far as endorsements are concerned, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is running up the score in his U.S. Senate race against Republican nominee Kari Lake. 

Gallego has already flexed some of his bipartisan appeal in this race by touting dozens of endorsements he’s received from Republicans, including sitting officials. Lake has tried to counter by promoting some Democrats who say they support her — though her group has lacked the local gravitas (i.e., name recognition) of Gallego’s group.

So Gallego’s endorsement from the conservative Arizona Police Association on Thursday adds to the pile-on. The organization, an advocacy group for law enforcement officers, has endorsed Trump in this election (a disturbing development, in my view) but apparently preferred to give Lake the cold shoulder in favor of her opponent, despite her fealty to Trump’s agenda. The organization touted Gallego’s ability to secure funding for law enforcement nationwide and in Arizona specifically in the press release announcing their endorsement.

“As a Marine combat veteran, we know Congressman Gallego understands the complexities of modern policing in American society today, while at the same time recognizing the public’s expectations,” APA President Justin Harris wrote. (Harris is the guy you might have seen Trump urging offstage midspeech during a campaign stop in Arizona last week.)

Of course, endorsements aren’t everything in a campaign. Neither are pre-election polls, which have generally shown Gallego with a pretty substantial lead in the weeks before early voting begins. Obviously, a win for Lake certainly remains a possibility. But the endorsements and the polls do measure … vibes: They can tell us valuable things about how a candidate is being perceived or how well their strategy seems to be working.

And in that sense, this latest APA endorsement seems like another indicator that Lake’s decision to mimic Trump’s tics and lines of attack aren’t working for her. For example, as part of her election denialism, she’s attacked mail-in voting, which is used by a majority of Arizonans. She’s insulted fellow Republicans — including late Arizona Sen. John McCain — just as Trump has. And much like Trump, she’s often seemed more focused on promoting her personal brand and elevating her profile than on campaigning — so much so that earlier this year, even Trump reportedly expressed concern about how often she’s at Mar-a-Lago.

Other swing state GOP candidates for Senate have had to reckon with this reality, too, from failed Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz to former Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler. And like them, it doesn’t appear to be a winning formula for Lake. When a Republican is so extreme or inauthentic that they turn off the Arizona Police Association, that’s a clear sign that it’s time for a new strategy.