There was a point in early October when it seemed like the presidential election just wasn’t going to be that competitive after all. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump was around eight points, and it was growing. She was winning the debates; Trump was facing allegations of sexual misconduct; and much of the political discussion was focused less on whether or not Clinton would prevail, and more on the margin of her victory.Nearly a month later, the conversation has changed. Many Republican voters have returned “home,” tightening the race and causing uncertainty about the outcome.
Heading into the final days of the presidential campaign, the race has settled back into a tight contest, with Hillary Clinton holding an edge over Donald J. Trump after a month of tumult. Most voters say their minds are made up and late revelations about both candidates made no significant difference to them, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll released Thursday.Five days before Election Day, the margin between the candidates is narrow, with 45 percent of likely voters supporting Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic candidate, to 42 percent for Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee.
Note, this isn’t a dramatic change from a month ago, when the New York Times/CBS News poll showed Clinton ahead by four, but it reinforces the larger pattern of a race that’s tightening as Election Day draws closer.The results are also roughly consistent with the new ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll, which as of this morning shows Clinton up by two, 47% to 45%, which is her best performance in this poll in a week. Note that earlier this week, Trump actually inched into the lead in the Post/ABC data, though that’s since reversed.Taken together, overall averages, with five days remaining before Election Day, put Clinton’s national lead somewhere between three and four points — a margin that should, if it holds, translate into a Democratic victory early next week.State polls, meanwhile, point in more complex directions.* In Pennsylvania, Monmouth University shows Clinton up by four; Quinnipiac has her ahead by five; and CNN puts her ahead by four. Given Trump’s electoral disadvantages, a defeat in the Keystone State would narrow his options quite a bit.* In Florida, Quinnipiac has Clinton ahead by one, while the CNN poll shows her up by two. A Clinton victory in the Sunshine State would all but assure her the presidency.* In Wisconsin, a Marquette Law School Poll shows Clinton leading Trump by six.* In Ohio, Quinnipiac found Trump with a five-point advantage.* In North Carolina, Quinnipiac showed Clinton with a lead of three points. Given that North Carolina was a Romney state four years ago, a Clinton win here would further diminish Trump’s chances.* In Nevada, CNN’s poll showed Trump up by six, but local reporters — see Ralston, Jon — consider these results impossible to believe.* In Arizona, where Democrats are making a last-ditch effort, CNN also found Trump with a five-point lead.* In New Hampshire, though most polls show Clinton ahead in the state, a new WBUR-FM poll shows Trump up by one point.* And just to capture the absurdity of the year, in Colorado, a University of Denver poll showed Clinton and Trump tied, while at the same time, a University of Colorado poll showed Clinton with a 10-point advantage.Put it all together, and Clinton’s odds of winning are somewhere between 66% and 86%, depending on whom you ask.
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Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."