When Donald Trump told NBC News over the weekend that he’s serious about pursuing a third term — the plain language of the U.S. Constitution notwithstanding — the president suggested to Kristen Welker that his public support was helping shape his perspective:
You have to start by saying, I have the highest poll numbers of any Republican for the last 100 years. We’re in the high 70s in many polls, in the real polls, and you see that. And, and you know, we’re very popular. And you know, a lot of people would like me to [seek a third term].
As this week got underway, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt appeared on Fox News and endorsed Trump’s line, arguing that the American people “love the job this president is doing.”
Days earlier, Alina Habba, an acting Trump-appointed U.S. attorney, similarly argued on Fox that the president’s public support is “skyrocketing,” with an approval rating that’s reached “an all-time high of anyone.” This morning, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters, “I understand why so many Americans do wish he could run for a third term.”
The obvious problem with these claims is that they’re utterly irrelevant. Americans have had popular and unpopular presidents, but they all had to follow the law. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” It does not say, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice — unless people really like the president, at which point all bets are off.”
But just as notable is the fact that Trump, who has a habit of making up generous approval ratings for himself out of whole cloth, seems oddly unaware of just how weak his public standing actually is.
Ten weeks into his second term, the president’s average approval rating is below 50% — which is a far cry from the “high 70s” claim the Republican peddled to NBC News. His disapproval rating is also higher than his approval rating, which is a problem pollsters refer to as being “under water.”
Recent national surveys from prominent pollsters — Gallup, NBC News, Reuters, CNN, and Quinnipiac University — found Trump’s support in the low to mid-40s. An Associated Press report added as this week got underway, “About 4 in 10 U.S. adults approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, and more than half disapprove.”
Putting aside the question of whether that number deserves to be higher or lower, it’s a woefully unimpressive level of public backing, given the president’s second term only began 10 weeks ago.
When he told NBC News, “I have the highest poll numbers of any Republican for the last 100 years,” that wasn’t just wrong, it was the opposite of reality: At this point in their terms, every other Republican president since the dawn of modern polling enjoyed stronger support than Trump does.
Yes, other presidents have reached lower depths — Richard Nixon at the height of Watergate, George W. Bush after the economic crash in 2008, etc. — but those poll collapses happened well into their presidencies, not 10 weeks in.
By any objective measure, Trump simply isn’t especially popular right now. He can either a) not care; or b) take steps to improve his standing. Instead, the president is choosing to c) make stuff up, which probably won’t help.
As for why you should care about the polls measuring the popularity of an incumbent who can’t run again, it’s worth re-emphasizing that the White House needs people to believe this weird lie. As we’ve discussed, members of Congress — who, unlike the incumbent president, have to worry about re-election — care a great deal about the prevailing political winds.
If the public really were rallying behind Trump and he really did enjoy 70% support, Republican lawmakers might be that much more inclined to follow his lead, while Democratic lawmakers in competitive districts would be that much less inclined to put up a fight against the White House agenda.
But with Americans expressing their dissatisfaction with Trump, it effectively creates a permission structure for Congress to defy the president’s wishes. In other words, the more voters turn against Trump, the harder it becomes for him to get his way, and the greater his need to make up approval ratings that don’t exist, hoping people will fall for the transparent con.
