The U.S. Senate is up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle, and it’s far from clear which party will be in the majority for the next two years. It’s likely that the entire national effort will come down to a contest in one state: Montana.
Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is a respected and accomplished incumbent, running on a record of success, and it won’t hurt his chances that there’s an abortion rights ballot measure on the statewide ballot. At the same time, however, Montana has earned a reputation as a reliably red state, where Donald Trump will almost certainly win easily.
Candidate quality, however, still matters in competitive races — and in Big Sky Country, the Republican candidate keeps running into trouble. NBC News reported:
Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, who is locked in a highly consequential race with Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, said in newly unearthed audio that the Republican Party needs to do a better job at winning over young women, who he said have been ‘indoctrinated’ for years on the issue of abortion.
“Young people, listen up, they’ve been indoctrinated for too long. We don’t even try to talk to them anymore,” Sheehy said at an event in late 2023, according to audio obtained by NBC News.
In case that weren’t quite enough, the Republican went on to say, “It’s called murder. That is the position of the American Democrat [sic] Party.”
Tester’s spokesperson responded to Sheehy’s rhetoric, saying, “Tim Sheehy calling young women ‘indoctrinated’ because they value reproductive freedom just goes to show how out of touch he is with Montanans. In Montana, we don’t want the government telling us what to do — and Sheehy’s position that politicians should get the final say over our health care is one of the many ways he’s trying to change Montana for the worse.”
This is probably the sort of story the GOP candidate would prefer to avoid four weeks before Election Day, but complicating matters for Sheehy is that this is the latest in a series of overlapping messes.
The Republican Senate hopeful, for example, has also used racist rhetoric when talking about Native Americans — which is indefensible under any circumstances, and which is especially foolish in a state with a sizable Native population.
There’s also the lingering controversy surrounding Sheehy’s gunshot wound, which he admits to having lied about and which he refuses to explain in more detail.
Unfortunately for the GOP candidate, the list keeps going. For example, Sheehy has also been accused of plagiarism. He’s also been accused of doctoring footage in a campaign commercial to obscure his association with a group that has advocated in support of transferring public lands, which is a big issue in Montana.
In August, NBC News reported that Sheehy’s claims about success in the private sector aren’t quite what they appear to be.
CNN reported last week, meanwhile, that the Republican — a 38-year-old political novice who’s never held elected office — has also “gone to extreme lengths to avoid press scrutiny” during his campaign.
With all of this in mind, a casual observer might assume that Tester is trouncing Sheehy. That’s not the case: The latest polling suggests the challenger is actually leading the incumbent.
There’s no great mystery as to why: Sheehy has an “R” after his name in a red state. That’s it. That’s the whole explanation.
But if Tester manages to outperform the polls and hang onto his seat for another term, expect a whole lot of “candidate quality” conversations in GOP circles in the weeks and months following Election Day.
