UPDATE (July 1, 2025, 12:16 p.m. ET): Shortly after this post was published, Senate Republicans narrowly approved their far-right legislative package.
As the Republican Party’s megabill inches toward a Senate vote, different observers and constituencies are focused on which of its many elements are the most important. Are the regressive tax breaks for the wealthy the most notable part of the far-right package? Or maybe the sweeping Medicaid cuts?
Should the focus be on cuts to the Affordable Care Act? The struggling families that would lose food assistance? The damage that the GOP legislation would do to the nation’s energy industries? The trillions of dollars that the bill intends to add to the national debt?
As it turns out, JD Vance has his own opinion about the legislation he might help advance. This was part of the thread the vice president published to social media late Monday night:
The thing that will bankrupt this country more than any other policy is flooding the country with illegal immigration and then giving those migrants generous benefits. The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] fixes this problem. And therefore it must pass. Everything else — the CBO score, the proper baseline, the minutiae of the Medicaid policy — is immaterial compared to the ICE money and immigration enforcement provisions.
To be sure, as a factual matter, Vance isn’t wrong about the impact the far-right legislation would have on ICE’s budget. As NBC News reported, the Republicans’ reconciliation package sets aside $150 billion for immigration enforcement, and about $30 billion of that total would go toward Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
This would represent a dramatic increase over the status quo — ICE’s budget would nearly quadruple — and ensure that ICE is far better funded than other law enforcement agencies, including the FBI.
But the vice president’s sales pitch still needs some work.
Right off the bat, it’s important to emphasize that ICE’s hyper-aggressive tactics have generated considerable public attention, and some recent polling suggests most Americans disapprove of the agency’s recent efforts. Asking the public, “Wouldn’t it be great if ICE were nearly four times larger, making it possible for heavy-handed raids in communities nationwide?” might lead to a whole lot of people responding, “No, actually, it wouldn’t.”
Just as notable, however, is the degree to which Vance is preparing people for the near future.
If the GOP bill becomes law, millions will lose their health care coverage. Millions will be hungrier. Rural hospitals will close. The debt will grow by trillions of dollars. Struggling families will have less money in their pockets. Businesses that rely on immigrant labor will fail.
And the vice president apparently wants the Americans who will be worse off to believe all of these consequences should be seen as “immaterial.” ICE raids matter, the Ohio Republican effectively argued, and nothing else does.
I suppose it’s possible that there will be some folks who really do say to themselves, “Republicans left my family far worse off, but there are some more immigrants at ‘Alligator Alcatraz,’ so I guess it’s all worth it.” But if Vance is counting on a lot of Americans thinking this way, he’s likely to be disappointed.
