Republican officials had reason to worry about the 2018 election cycle before yesterday, but it’s safe to say their anxiety levels reached new heights overnight.
Democrat Conor Lamb is the apparent winner over Republican Rick Saccone in Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, according to an NBC News projection.
With 99 percent of the votes counted, Lamb was leading by 641 votes in a district long held by the GOP and one that President Donald Trump — who backed Saccone — carried by 20 points in 2016.
Lamb declared victory early Wednesday morning. Saccone has not conceded and his campaign is in touch with legal counsel.
I can appreciate why the “apparent” caveat is unsatisfying, but that’s where things stand. Given the best information available right now, it looks like Lamb has narrowly won this race.
And that’s not an outcome many would’ve predicted when the special-election campaign started. As we discussed yesterday, Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district, south of Pittsburgh in the Keystone State’s southwest corner, can safely be described as a Republican stronghold. John McCain won here by 11 points in his presidential campaign in 2008; Mitt Romney fared even better four years later, winning by 17 points; and Donald Trump carried the district by a 20-point margin.
The area’s former congressman, Republican Tim Murphy, ran unopposed in the last two election cycles – because no local Democrats saw any point in going up against him.
When a sex scandal led to Murphy’s resignation, GOP officials assumed the party would have little trouble holding onto the seat. After all, a Democrat winning here would be like a Democrat winning a U.S. Senate campaign in Alabama.
Wait, that recently happened, too.
As the dust settles, it’s worth keeping a few things in mind:
1. Republicans went all out to help Saccone win. The Republican enjoyed a huge financial advantage in this race thanks to spending from outside GOP groups, and Saccone received extensive support from party leaders, including visits to the area from the president and vice president. As Republican candidates nationwide have probably noticed, it didn’t much matter.









