Pop quiz: How many people are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024? I’ll give you a second to count on your fingers. Hint: You’ll have to count some fingers twice.
Time’s up: With Thursday’s announcement from former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas there are now 13 — yes, a baker’s dozen — candidates who have officially announced that they want to represent the GOP on the ballot against President Joe Biden next year. (For the record, I only got to 10, including Hurd.)
All of them have to hope that those groups’ votes aren’t so diluted among them as to leave them all too weak to affect the race.
It’s a well-worn cliché that in America, anybody can grow up to be president. It’s never quite been true: The vast majority of men who’ve ascended to the presidency either came from wealth or had other structural advantages to boost their chances. But in the last several campaign cycles, we’ve seen the field of candidates expand as more and more would-be nominees shoot their shots. Seventeen Republicans vied for the White House in 2016; an incredible 29 tried to win the Democratic nomination in 2020.
As of now, two candidates tower over the rest of the 2024 field: former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But with the number of hopefuls who have declared their bids in recent weeks, from more obvious options such as former Vice President Mike Pence to surprises such as Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, it doesn’t seem like Hurd will be the last to try to cram his name onto what’s already an overcrowded list.
That’s not to say Hurd is somehow less qualified than other candidates who’ve already entered the contest. He’s a former CIA officer, he served in Congress for two terms, he hails from a border state, and he is the third Black Republican to join the race. (Don’t worry, I forgot conservative talk show host Larry Elder is running, too.) But though his résumé makes him an attractive prospect on paper, he’s running as a moderate when the energy in the GOP base is skewed heavily to the right. He also told CBS News on Thursday, for example, that he wouldn’t pardon Trump if elected, potentially lowering his ceiling for support.
Anti-Trump Republicans need a candidate, of course — but that’s also a lane former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie hopes to occupy. Hurd will also have to face comparisons to Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and questions about who can better entice the Black community’s vote for those voters who want to see a more inclusive Republican Party. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will vie with him for moderate Republicans’ support. And all of them have to hope that those groups’ votes aren’t so diluted among them as to leave them all too weak to affect the race.
That these slices of the electorate are set to be so intensely fought over showcases the grueling battle many of the announced candidates face. While Hurd is more moderate than most of his fellow candidates, there’s little room for nuance as far as policy goes within the GOP these days. (I somehow doubt his calls for immigration reform will play well with the party of “build the wall.”) And though Trump already faces numerous criminal charges, he still maintains a solid lead in early polls. He and DeSantis are likewise sitting on top of giant campaign war chests that will be hard to match. And their positions would be hard to surmount for any candidate without many other rivals scrambling to close the gap.
I can’t say for certain whether every new entry can envision a world in which they actually win. As my colleague Zeeshan Aleem noted, it’s entirely possible that at least some of them are in the race to audition for Cabinet positions, maybe even the vice presidency, or at least to raise their national profiles for later runs. It’s likely, though, that many of them see themselves swooping in like Barack Obama to topple the presumptive nominee in 2008. Or some, like Vivek Ramaswamy, are hoping to capitalize on the outsider status Obama and Trump shared in their unlikely runs to the Oval Office. At minimum, someone has whispered in each of these candidates’ ears that the time to strike is now.








