The most unusual presidential election of our lifetimes has ended, and Donald Trump has won, NBC News projects. Now, millions of worried Americans have one question on their minds: What comes next? Historic precedents, Trump’s rhetoric and the actions we witnessed during his first administration, in which I served as a national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, offer some clues.
First, we must worry about a possible significant uptick in political violence. By making not-so-veiled public threats, like his recent comments about former Rep. Liz Cheney, Trump risks putting a target on the back of anyone who opposes him. People can make excuses and say he didn’t mean it, but the reality is that he could have called her a “war hawk” without saying there should be “nine barrels shooting at her.”
The free press could increasingly face intimidation: comply or else.
And should he pardon the Jan. 6 insurrectionists, as he has promised to do, he would effectively grant immunity to extremists who could commit acts of violence on his behalf. Who will stop him? Allies like Steve Bannon, Mike Flynn and Stephen Miller? The Supreme Court? The Justice Department? Don’t kid yourself.
The media landscape could change dramatically. We’ve already seen anticipatory obedience by The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times and other outlets that declined to make presidential endorsements this year, and Trump has filed a multibillion-dollar lawsuit against CBS, which he has threatened to shut down.
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At the same time, Trump has been building his own media company. A worst-case scenario would see this becoming an arm of the government, not unlike state-sponsored propaganda outlets in autocratic countries. There’s no guarantee that will happen, but the free press could increasingly face intimidation: comply or else. And if journalists become restricted, the public will be starved for objective reporting.
Trump has promised mass deportations of immigrants, with further promises of raids and encampments creating a climate of fear and suspicion. Economically, the fallout could be staggering. If millions of workers — including people here legally — face deportation, businesses will struggle in an already tight labor market. Funding for this massive operation would have to come from somewhere: An increased national debt, a national sales tax, cuts to entitlements like Social Security and the elimination of programs like the Affordable Care Act are strong possibilities. Many of these options could cause the average American to suffer financially. And that’s on top of the impact of Trump’s proposed tariff plan and Elon Musk’s threats to “tank the economy.”
As Trump consolidates more power in the executive branch, corporate allies like Musk will thrive, creating an American oligarchy that blurs the line between public service and private gain. For people like me, government workers denigrated by Trump as “deep state,” there will likely be thousands of lost jobs. And what if there are prosecutions of those of us courageous enough to stand up and tell the truth about him? Justice will no longer be blind.
The implications of this shift will resonate far beyond our borders, ushering in a more dangerous geopolitical era. A sudden loss of experience and institutional memory at our government agencies would also complicate U.S. foreign policy and hurt our national security and intelligence capabilities. A simultaneous retreat from global leadership could leave allies abandoned and aggressors emboldened, the stability of Europe hanging in the balance. The implications of this shift would resonate far beyond our borders, ushering in a more dangerous geopolitical era. At home, marginalized communities will presumably face new pressures. Women’s reproductive rights will be under siege, hard-won protections for people of color and the LGBTQ+ community could be rolled back, and some of the institutions created to safeguard these rights gutted, leaving vulnerable populations to fend for themselves. I also expect further corruption of the electoral process: more flagrant gerrymandering, the eradication of independent redistricting committees, and more loyalists in charge of state and local election boards. All of this is chilling to contemplate — especially because Americans chose it. We know everything there is to know about Donald Trump: his many deep personal and professional character flaws, his chronically inept and chaotic first term, his disgraceful attempts to overturn the last election, and his aggressively autocratic agenda. Can our democracy survive? It is difficult to maintain hope amid such conditions, but we have no alternative. The fight for liberty, justice and truth will continue, and we will navigate this uncertain world together. The future is unwritten, but our resolve will define it. The struggle is just beginning.
Olivia Troye
Olivia Troye is a national security strategist and media commentator. She was the homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence. She has also held leadership and advisory positions within the Department of Homeland Security and the intelligence community, as well as the Energy and Defense departments as a political appointee under President George W. Bush. 
