“Ain’t nobody coming to see you, Otis” is an iconic line from “The Temptations,” a 1998 NBC miniseries. Delivered by the actor playing David Ruffin, it’s a boast that the audience was not paying to see anyone else in the group, just Ruffin. Conventional wisdom says one could apply this logic to Tuesday’s vice presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance of Ohio.
In a “normal election,” a debate between the No. 2s on the ticket would be interesting but not statistically significant. The rule for a vice presidential debate is generally the same election to election: Stick to the top of the ticket’s message, draw a contrast with the challenger anchored in that message and, crucially, do no harm. Conventional wisdom says people do not cast ballots because of whom the Democratic or Republican nominee chose as an eventual governing partner. It’s the name on the top of the ticket that matters.
However, this is not a normal election, and I disagree with the conventional wisdom. Running mates matter, and tonight’s debate is quite significant!
Stick to the top of the ticket’s message, draw a contrast with the challenger anchored in that message and, crucially, do no harm.
If the nominees’ choice for potential governing partner did not matter, then there would no reason to put them on the stage together before the election. Choosing a running mate is the first presidential-level decision a major party nominee makes. It is a statement about who they are and what their agenda and legacy will be if elected president. In selecting the millennial Vance, former President Donald Trump tripled down on Trumpism, cementing it as a key pillar of the Republican Party apparatus and the bedrock of the GOP’s next generation.
In selecting Walz, Vice President Kamala Harris signaled that the Democratic tent is big and that she is serious about making her bold plans on child care, reproductive freedom and the economy a reality. Just look at what her running mate has done in Minnesota when it comes to those issues.
Tonight’s debate could be the last time voters hear from the campaigns in a forum at which they are mandated to stand next to each other and defend their plans. A literal split screen where the comments of both participants will take center stage. That alone raises the stakes.
Vance will have to answer for his treasure trove of soundbites on everything from likening Trump to Hitler and the racist conspiratorial lies about Haitian people in his home state, to name just two. Walz will be asked to defend his record in Minnesota (because apparently feeding children is too progressive) and his military service record. Regardless of what the moderators ask, a candidate who is well prepared will answer the question then quickly pivot out of the conversation about themselves and back to the issues and their No. 1. This is not always easy to do, but it is critical.
The last thing a campaign wants is the running mate making unauthorized news.
When we first sat down for debate prep in 2020 with then-Sen. Harris, we initially focused on ensuring she knew what then-candidate Joe Biden had said publicly about each issue. It was important she was well versed in his thoughts, so she knew the contours of where and how far to go in discussing any particular topic.
The last thing a campaign wants is the running mate making unauthorized news. When Vance sat down with my colleague Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” he emphatically stated Trump would not sign a national abortion ban into law. And yet, during Trump’s second debate this cycle, he walked back Vance’s answer on national television. Vance will want to avoid making the same mistake tonight, but a large part of being vice president is speaking for the president. If Vance cannot do that in a debate, why would he be able to do it at the White House? For Walz, he will have to walk the tightrope of part attack dog and part explainer. This is an area where many voters still say they want to know more about Harris’ plans, so Walz will have to use his time wisely, find moments to speak directly to the people at home and explain how a prospective Harris-Walz administration would make a difference for families across the country. Much has been said about Walz not being a seasoned debater, but remember he was a high school teacher and a football coach! One could say he honed his oratory skills in the lion’s den. In 2020, during Harris’ debate prep, we had many internal discussions about how to handle the question of age if it came up. Tonight, Walz won’t have that problem. Harris will turn 60 this month; however, Vance will have to speak to why Americans should trust 78-year-old Donald Trump to sit behind the resolute desk again and if he himself — a freshman senator with no legislative accomplishments and no other political or government experience — would actually be ready to lead the country if duty called. Tonight, while no one will be looking for Otis, all political eyes will be on Tim Walz and JD Vance.
Symone D. Sanders Townsend is an author and a co-host of "The Weeknight." 
