As the last ballots trickle in, NBC News has projected that Republicans will hold the House of Representatives, claiming unified control of government.
But big ambitions are about to run smack into a razor-thin margin for error, and House Democrats may find themselves in the driver’s seat. That’s because for all the hype around Donald Trump’s resounding victory, the GOP majority in the House will again be a tiny one.
This underperformance downballot will leave Speaker Mike Johnson unable to lose more than a couple of Republicans on any vote.
House Democrats significantly outraised their GOP counterparts, and Trump’s support did not fully transfer to Republican congressional candidates. This underperformance downballot will leave Speaker Mike Johnson unable to lose more than a couple of Republicans on any vote.
The House GOP will take big swings at things it wants to do, such as extending the 2017 Trump tax law and opening up American energy production. Those efforts may well be successful.
But there are also things Congress has to do, like fully fund the government and increase the federal debt ceiling. House Republicans, with their similarly small majority today, have shown repeatedly that they cannot muster the votes on their own to do these basic obligations of governance. Democrats have bailed out the majority several times in this Congress. While Trump will be a unifying force for Republicans, there’s little chance they will be able to avoid turning to Democrats to help keep the government open and avoid debt default. And you can bet Democrats are going to want something in exchange for their votes this time around. There’s no question Trump has a mandate and momentum, but don’t be surprised if his party is eventually humbled by its small majority in the House.
Brendan Buck
Brendan Buck is an NBC News and MSNBC political analyst. He was previously counselor to former House Speaker Paul Ryan and press secretary to former House Speaker John Boehner. 
