The Republican race for president has been upended in the last week, but the top story remains the same: If Donald Trump is not stopped in the winner-take-all states of Ohio and Florida on March 15, he will likely become the GOP nominee. At the very least, he would force an ugly contested convention at which he’d be difficult to dislodge barring a total collapse in later races.
That makes this coming week, which includes several test races on Tuesday and a debate on Thursday before the ultimate showdown, absolutely critical.
The biggest developments since the Super Tuesday contests on March 1, when Trump established a dominant delegate lead after winning seven states, have had less to do with Trump and more to do with his opponents. Senator Marco Rubio, who has spent the last few weeks attacking Trump as a “con artist,” appears to be sinking fast, while rivals, especially Senator Ted Cruz, steal his support.
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Saturday’s contests in Maine, Kansas, Louisiana, and Kentucky signaled the shift. Trump won a caucus in Kentucky and primary in Louisiana, but by smaller margins than similar states like Alabama and Tennessee the week before, thanks mainly to improved performances from Cruz, who won caucuses in Maine and Kansas. Cruz’s surge came mainly at the expense of Rubio, who peaked at 17 percent support in Kansas and scraped single digits at 8 percent in Maine.
Rubio bounced back with a win in Puerto Rico the next day, but if he can’t win Florida he’ll have little rationale to stay in the race beyond the hope of influencing a contested convention.
Adding to his woes, Rubio’s campaign on Monday batted down an alarming report from CNN that some campaign advisers were pushing him to exit the race before March 15, an idea campaign spokesman Alex Conant told the network was “fiction” and “not true.”
“Every day that goes by I think we’re going to continue to gain votes and gain support as we get closer, but it’s going to be a lot of hard work,” Rubio told reporters earlier in the day in Florida.
Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii vote on Tuesday. While none of them are make-or-break contests, they offer an important heat check before Florida.
Of the four states, Michigan has the most delegates and will be watched most closely. Several polls this week showed Trump with a double-digit lead and Rubio’s support plummeting behind Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich, who has made the state a top target. If Trump cleans up in Michigan it could signal that his populist message is catching on in the Rust Belt, setting him up well for neighboring Ohio.
Mississippi also becomes more relevant after Saturday’s races — if Cruz overtakes Trump after losing several similar races, it might suggest Trump is hitting his ceiling as support unites against him. Cruz campaigned there on Monday, where he called Trump his “leading competitor in this state.”
While Cruz’s best natural states, namely those in the South, are mostly behind him, Rubio’s backsliding gives Cruz an increasingly strong argument that he’s the candidate best positioned to make a last stand against Trump.








