ISIS’ conquest of the ancient city of Palmyra marked the latest in a series of setbacks for the Syrian regime, but analysts say not to count out President Bashar Assad just yet.
This week’s capture of the so-called “Venice of the Sands” and its Roman-era ruins marked what appeared to be the first time ISIS directly seized a city from Syrian military and allied forces.
French President Francois Hollande said the fall of Palmyra showed Assad was significantly diminished and called for a new push to broker a deal for his ouster.
“With a regime that is clearly weakened, and with a Bashar Assad who cannot be the future of Syria, we must build a new Syria which can be rid, naturally, of the regime and Bashar Assad but also, above all, of the terrorists,” he said Friday.
NBC News reported in December that ISIS and Assad’s forces were mostly ignoring each other on the battlefield, focused on eliminating smaller rivals ahead of a possible final showdown.
The Assad regime was focused on stamping out the moderate and weaker opposition — and knew ISIS was doing so too. Now both are starting to engage in a “much more concerted way” because “there isn’t much of a moderate left,” according to Matthew Henman, head of IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center.
However, there is still one large, well-funded and well-armed obstacle acting as a thorn in both sides: the Army of Fatah, a coalition which includes the al Qaeda-linked Nusra front and recently seized control of Idlib from pro-government forces.
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Analysts say the Army of Fatah also poses a longterm threat to ISIS as a competitor. Rumors are rife that the coalition is receiving funding from a variety of external actors — Saudi Arabia, Turkey and even Qatar — and Assad has had to rely on Hezbollah fighters for help in the Qalamoun Mountains to beat back the rebels.
“The Assad government now is being squeezed between these two groups who are still competing with each other,” Henman said.








