Two weeks ago, NBC News asked Donald Trump whether he still had confidence in House Speaker Mike Johnson. “We’ll see,” the president-elect replied.
In the days that followed, Trump let the Louisiana Republican twist in the wind, creating great uncertainty in party circles about who, exactly, would lead the House GOP conference in the next Congress. As this week got underway, however, the president-elect reversed course and extended his “Complete & Total Endorsement” to the incumbent speaker.
Trump likely hoped that his statement would effectively end the discussion about Johnson’s fate. It did not. Axios reported:
Detractors and skeptics of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) appear to be only digging in ahead of the House speaker election on Jan. 3. … House GOP hardliners’ continued hesitance to coalesce around Johnson suggests that President-elect Trump’s endorsement of the incumbent speaker has had little effect so far.
To briefly recap the arithmetic, on the first day of the new Congress, there will be 434 House members — 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats — and if every representative shows up and votes, the next speaker will need 218 votes (217 would represent exactly half, and to get the gavel, someone will need a literal majority).
As things stand, one GOP member, Rep. Thomas Massie, has declared publicly that he will not back Johnson. If the Kentucky Republican sticks to that position, it wouldn’t be fatal to the incumbent speaker because it would leave him with 218 votes from his own GOP conference. If, however, Massie follows through and picks up one additional ally from his own party, Johnson will be short of the support he needs — at least, that is, on the first ballot.
The question then becomes obvious: Just how likely is it that Massie will find some like-minded friends?
Head-counts vary, but most observers tend to agree that there are between 12 and 15 House Republicans who’ve hedged when asked about their plans for Friday, saying that they’re undecided. This led Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas — one of the Johnson skeptics — to tell Fox Business this week, “I don’t believe that he has the votes on Friday.”
That’s not to say that the incumbent speaker will never have the votes, only that, by Roy’s assessment, Johnson might not have the votes when the first round gets underway.
To be sure, a lot can — and likely will — happen over the next day or so. The Louisianian is reportedly working the phones, and Trump has said that he’s prepared to start doing the same, investing some meaningful political capital into the House vote.
What’s more, this isn’t just an arm-twisting phase, it’s also a horse-trading phase: GOP holdouts are well aware of the leverage they have at this point, and they’re likely to extract as many concessions as they can from the party leadership before, during and after the first votes on the floor. As for Massie, the Kentuckian is engaged in his own lobbying efforts, declaring on New Year’s Eve that the incumbent speaker “is not up for this task.” He added, “Johnson nearly led us to the minority in what was a banner year for Trump. He is certain to lose us the majority in 2026.” I won’t pretend to know what will happen, though there is one element to the fight that appears to be working in the current speaker’s favor: He doesn’t yet have an intraparty rival. Indeed, one House GOP aide told Politico this week, “No one is happy with Johnson, but no one wants to openly talk about alternatives.” Watch this space. This post updates our related earlier coverage.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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