It’s not exactly a secret that President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects have faltered in the wake of last week’s debate. Most of the latest polls show Donald Trump’s advantage growing; some Democrats have called on the incumbent president to end his 2024 candidacy; and others in Biden’s party have started distancing themselves from the presumptive Democratic nominee.
With this in mind, it’s easy to understand why pollsters would start asking voters, not only about Biden-Trump match-ups, but also about what the presidential race would look like if the president weren’t at the top of the Democratic ticket in the fall.
Over the last 24 hours, two national surveys — a Reuters/Ipsos poll and a CNN poll conducted by SSRS — found the former Republican president leading each of the Democrats whose names are often included in speculative chatter about the 2024 race.
There was, however, one notable exception. From the Reuters report:
Among the names of top Democrats put before respondents, only Michelle Obama, wife of former Democratic President Barack Obama, outperformed Biden and led Trump 50% to 39% in a hypothetical matchup. Michelle Obama, author of the best-selling 2018 memoir “Becoming,” has said repeatedly she does not intend to run for president.
At this point, let’s pause to acknowledge reality: There is literally no reason whatsoever to think the former first lady will run for public office, this year or any other. Michelle Obama has been categorical on this point on multiple occasions, across several election cycles.
As recently as March of this year, in a statement to NBC News, the former first lady’s office tried to rein in imaginations, making it clear her 2024 plans don’t include running for office.
“As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president,” her communications director said. “Mrs. Obama supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ re-election campaign.”
In other words, I have some advice for those ready to put a “Michelle Obama 2024” bumper-sticker on their car: Don’t bother. It’s a near-certainty that this candidacy will not happen.
So if the former first lady simply isn’t interested, what difference does it make that she has a double-digit lead over the presumptive GOP nominee? If this is all in the realm of fantasy, why take note of polling related to a hypothetical contest that won’t happen? The answer has less to do with Michelle Obama and more to do with the Republican candidate she leads by 11 points. To hear Trump and his acolytes tell it, the former president isn’t just a candidate, he’s also the head of a powerful political movement. What’s more, as far as Republicans are concerned, Trump’s lead in the polls isn’t rooted in an anti-Democrat sentiment; it’s the result of an American electorate that loves the presumptive GOP nominee and is clamoring to vote for him. Perhaps, though in a match-up against the former first lady, Trump not only trails by double digits, he also fails to crack 40%. The point is, Michelle Obama’s polling lead suggests there’s a broad political appetite for someone other than the former president. The challenge for Democrats is presenting those voters with a ticket they’ll be excited about.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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