In November 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee’s 7th congressional district by 22 percentage points, as Republicans romped to victory in what has become one of the reddest states in the country.
A year later, there is a very different story emerging in Tennessee’s 7th. Both parties are pouring millions of dollars into the district for a special election next week to replace former Republican Rep. Mark Green, who retired in July. And Democrats have a puncher’s chance of scoring an upset.
The sudden competitiveness of a special House election in a heavily gerrymandered Republican district is a good summation of Trump and the GOP’s current political freefall — and the rising political fortunes of Democrats.
Nothing says more about the toxicity of Trump and the GOP brand than a Republican candidate in an R+22 seat running away from the president and his party.
By all accounts, Republican Matt Van Epps, the former Tennessee General Services commissioner, is leading his opponent, Democrat Aftyn Behn, a member of the Tennessee House of Representatives, in the polls. (Though on Wednesday late last week, a stunning poll from Emerson College/The Hill showed Van Epps ahead by only two points, with a roughly four-point margin of error.)
But with Democrats overperforming in special elections in 2025 by around 13 points — as well as a couple of unexpected double-digit victories in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, plus winning two statewide races in Georgia by nearly 25 points — seemingly even an R+22 seat could be up for grabs.
You don’t have to believe me. Instead, just follow the money. A pro-Trump super PAC, two other outside conservative PACs and the National Republican Congressional Committee have already spent more than $2 million in support of Van Epps. That wouldn’t be happening if Republicans felt comfortable that they had this race in the bag.
Meanwhile, national Democrats, who initially seemed content to sit this race out, are also spending big. The House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates, announced late last week it was spending $1 million on ads to boost Behn.
Can Democrats pull off the upset? Vanderbilt University political scientist John G. Geer is skeptical. “It is a steep climb for Behn to win,” he told me. “Even making it a single-digit race is an accomplishment.” Still, says Geer, “it is clear that the GOP is worried.”
Jeff Yarbro, who is one of six Democratic members of the Tennessee state Senate (out of 33 total), has a slightly rosier view of the race. “Energy and attention [are] all going her way,” he told me. Van Epps doesn’t have “any real history with voters and is not generating any excitement.” He is, says Yarbro, “almost the perfect stand-in for ‘generic Republican.’”
Behn, like successful Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia, has focused her campaign message on the latest buzzword in American politics: “affordability.” Her ads talk about rising health care costs and grocery bills, while painting her opponent as a tool of special interests and billionaire fat cats.
Not surprisingly, Epps’ allies have portrayed Behn as a “Marxist” and a “lunatic” and have tried to tie her to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Depicting a Democrat in a red state as a wild-eyed liberal is hardly a first, but with Behn, it’s a bit easier. She has a background as a liberal activist and has received backing from the Democratic Socialists of America, or DSA. In recent days, anti-police comments she made after the murder of George Floyd have also surfaced.
Behn, however, isn’t exactly running away from her progressive past. She has made campaign appearances alongside liberal stars, who conservatives love to hate, such as Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, and activist David Hogg. Earlier this month, former Vice President Kamala Harris appeared at a campaign event (though Behn was not present).
The one thing that scares most members of Congress more than anything else is the prospect of a competitive election.
In a special election, turnout is everything, and Behn’s strategy seems to be “turn out my voters and hope enough Republicans stay home.” The Behn campaign has likely concluded that Harris’ ability to motivate Republicans is more than offset by the impact on partisan Democrats who voted for her last year.
For his part, Van Epps isn’t exactly leaning into the support he’s received from President Trump. Though the president endorsed him in a crowded primary field and appeared at a tele-rally earlier this month, Van Epps’ latest ad not only doesn’t mention Trump — it also omits his partisan affiliation. (Instead, the ad identifies Van Epps as “American Patriot.”)
Nothing says more about the toxicity of Trump and the GOP brand than a Republican candidate in an R+22 seat running away from the president and his party. And the aforementioned Emerson/Hill poll shows Trump’s favorability in Tennessee’s 7th district at just 47%, with roughly 49% disapproval — a stunning reversal of fortune for the president.
Still, make no mistake, Van Epps is heavily favored to win. While Democrats have been running 13 points ahead of Harris’ 2024 numbers, that kind of performance would still leave Behn several points short of winning. However, a single-digit defeat could have a seismic effect on Capitol Hill.
The one thing that scares most members of Congress more than anything else is the prospect of a competitive election. For the lion’s share of Republicans in safe, heavily gerrymandered districts, they can generally waltz to victory.
But if Behn loses by six or seven points, Republicans in districts that Trump won by less than 15 points might start getting a tad nervous (for those keeping score at home, that’s 53 Republican members).
Michael A. Cohen is a political writer and a fellow with the Eurasia Group Foundation.