After a wave of high-profile election losses across the country last month, the GOP notched a much-needed win Tuesday in a closely watched Tennessee special congressional race, padding the party’s narrow House margin ahead of next year’s midterms.
NBC News’ Decision Desk projects that Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative and community organizer, in the special election to represent Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. Van Epps’ victory will boost Republicans’ advantage in the chamber to 220-213.
Democrats keyed into the race had largely built their expectations regarding its outcome around two possibilities: winning or an over performance by Behn.
The current political environment — one in which Trump faces sluggish approval ratings and Republicans find themselves defending an unpopular agenda — paired with the state’s reputation for low turnout during off-year elections, restored confidence among party members that they could at the very least cut into the double-digit margin Trump won the district by in 2024.
Victory would have been sweet, but for Democrats, Behn’s success in making this election competitive undercuts the bitterness of her loss.
“What happened tonight in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes. Aftyn Behn’s over performance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms,” DNC Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement.
The fact that Republicans spent millions to protect this Trump +22 district and still lost so much ground should have the GOP shaking in their boots,” said DNC Chair Ken Martin.
That sentiment was echoed by Democratic voters in Tennessee’s 7th district, many of whom were hopeful but skeptical of Behn’s chances to become the first Democrat to represent the district in more than 40 years, but still lauded her campaign for making the effort.
“They’ve gotten out there. Her supporters have gotten out in the community,” said Howard Ritchy, a resident of Joelton, Tenn. “Even if van Epps wins, it ain’t going to be by much, because so many people are engaged in this election, and they know it makes a difference.”
Republicans too noticed the success of Behn’s organizing, pouring millions of dollars into television advertisements casting her as a radical and highlighting her past support for progressive causes, including defunding the police.
The Trump-aligned and Elon Musk-funded MAGA Inc. PAC, for instance, poured more than $1.3 million dollars into the race — its first investment of that magnitude in an election this year.
“We’ve dumped just an absolute ton of money, lot of resources, both from a financial perspective and a manpower perspective,” RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said during a radio interview on Monday, characterizing the strength of Behn’s campaign as a “wake up call.”
That too is a win for Democrats, Martin said.
“The fact that Republicans spent millions to protect this Trump +22 district and still lost so much ground should have the GOP shaking in their boots,” he said.
Van Epps will replace former Republican Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July to return to the private sector to start his own business.
Van Epps, a West Point graduate and former Army helicopter pilot, easily won his October special primary, beating out 10 Republican rivals. He scored endorsements from President Donald Trump and Green.
Van Epps’ victory will likely boost Republican hopes ahead of next year’s midterm elections as the party attempts to build on its narrow majority.
The race garnered national attention following Democrats’ commanding victory at the ballot box in November. Behn focused her campaign on affordability and voters’ frustration with Washington, mirroring the message that helped her party score wins in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City.
Republicans clearly understood what was at stake in Tuesday’s election. On Monday, House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke at a rally in support of Van Epps. During his remarks, the speaker called Trump, who told the crowd, “The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching the district,” and urged voters to “make it a sweeping victory.”
The Democrats also brought out their heavy hitters. Earlier this month, former Vice President Kamala Harris made an appearance in Nashville to campaign on behalf of Behn.
In 2024, Trump carried the district with 60% of the vote, compared to Harris’ 38%. Just two years prior, Republicans in the state redrew the 7th Congressional District as part of its redistricting process. Davidson County, home to Nashville, and a reliably blue demographic, was split into three seats that favored Republicans.
Tuesday’s contest was the fifth special election to fill a vacant seat in Congress this year. Next year, special elections are expected to be held in Texas, after the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner in March; in New Jersey, following Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s November win; and in Georgia, after Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves office in January.
Allison Detzel is an editor/producer for MS NOW.
Nnamdi Egwuonwu is a reporter for MS NOW.