When President Donald Trump called the Jeffrey Epstein files “a Russia, Russia, Russia hoax” on Monday, he was hinting at what he’ll do next.
So far, Trump has handled the ongoing scandal surrounding the release of records related to the convicted sex trafficker with the same playbook he deployed against questions about his 2016 campaign’s contacts with the Russian government.
In both cases, Trump has burned through a remarkable number of arguments — some of which are contradictory — as he changes his position in light of new revelations, more of which are sure to come now that the House and Senate have passed a bill compelling their release.
Regarding the Epstein case, he has argued that there’s nothing to the scandal: “It’s pretty boring stuff.” He’s tried to shift the focus to his political opponents: “It’s really a Democrat problem.” And he’s claimed it is all a hoax: “The supposed letter they printed by President Trump to Epstein was a FAKE.”
If he follows his playbook, then the next argument is clear: pretend he was exonerated.
In the Russia scandal, Trump repeatedly claimed that newly released documents exonerated him.
In the Russia scandal that consumed so much of his first term, Trump repeatedly claimed that newly released documents exonerated him or vindicated his prior claims — even when they actually contained a lot of damaging information.
- When memos written by former FBI Director James Comey about his early 2017 meetings with Trump were made public, Trump posted on social media that they “show clearly that there was NO COLLUSION and NO OBSTRUCTION.” The memos actually alleged that Trump repeatedly pressed the FBI head to help “lift the cloud” over his presidency. (Trump denied asking Comey to scuttle investigations.) He later claimed Comey’s testimony to Congress was also “total and complete vindication.” (It was not.)
- When an inspector general’s report on the FBI’s handling of the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server was released, Trump claimed that it exculpated him on the Russia investigation, even though it was on a completely different subject: “Look, if you read the IG report, I’ve been totally exonerated.”
- When the report from a team led by former FBI Director Robert Mueller was released, Trump said it was “a complete and total exoneration,” even though it documented 140 times Trump campaign officials met with Russian nationals, WikiLeaks or their intermediaries; 77 false claims made to the public, Congress or other authorities; and 10 times Trump tried to personally influence the investigation.
For months, Trump has resisted releasing the Epstein files, despite saying during the 2024 election that he would “have no problem with it.” House Speaker Mike Johnson, who doesn’t do anything contrary to Trump’s wishes, didn’t swear in Rep. Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz. — the final lawmaker needed to trigger a House vote to release the Epstein files — for seven weeks. And, according to The New York Times, top administration officials summoned Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., to a meeting to discuss her support for releasing the files.
Over the weekend, when it became clear that the measure to release the files would pass over his opposition, Trump reversed himself, announcing that “House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files because we have nothing to hide.” The bill passed the House and the Senate nearly unanimously Tuesday, with only one Republican, Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana, voting against the release.
It’s unclear what the files will say about Trump, but we know what he will say about them. It’s unclear what the files will say about Trump, but we know what he will say about them. Already, the thousands of pages of documents from the Epstein estate publicly released by the House Oversight Committee show that Epstein mentioned Trump by name repeatedly in his emails, saying, “of course he knew about the girls” and that the late Virginia Giuffre “spent hours at my house with him.” (In a 2016 deposition, Giuffre said that she did not have sex with Trump.) They have also shown Trump sent Epstein a suggestive birthday note with a drawing of a naked woman. (Trump denied he wrote or drew the note.) White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the most recently released documents “prove absolutely nothing, other than the fact that President Trump did nothing wrong.” The rhetorical sleight of hand is clear: If the report doesn’t prove the worst thing imaginable, then it proves Trump is totally innocent. Trump may have welcomed Russian interference as a candidate, his campaign may have lied about it and he may have tried to block an investigation into it as president, but if he didn’t personally accept a briefcase full of cash from Vladimir Putin, well then he’s as innocent as the driven snow, the argument goes. Again, we won’t know what is in the Epstein files until they’re released. But no matter what they show, we can expect Trump will say that they exonerate him.
Ryan Teague Beckwith is a newsletter editor for MS NOW. 
