This is an adapted excerpt from the Aug. 21 episode of “All In with Chris Hayes.”
The redistricting arms race is upon us. On Thursday, California lawmakers passed the Election Rigging Response Act, a law that would give the state’s voters a chance to approve a new congressional map in November, which could net Democrats more seats in next year’s midterm elections.
That came one day after Texas Republicans advanced a bill in their Legislature to redraw that state’s congressional districts and make them even redder. The state’s Senate will vote on that bill soon and Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to sign it within days.
It is a desperate attempt to subvert the will of an American voting public that is already reacting strongly against Trump.
Shortly before signing his state’s new bill, California Gov. Gavin Newsom confirmed that the Texas plan and the man who asked for it are the reason his state is responding. “We got here because the president of the United States is one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S. history. We got here because he recognizes that he will lose the election. Congress will go back to the hands of the Democratic Party next November,” Newsom said. “He recognized that, and that’s why he made a phone call to Greg Abbott asking for five seats.”
This is not politics as usual, and it could be easy to lose sight of what all this means. But this is all happening because Donald Trump and Republicans are intent on holding on to their ruling majority in Washington, no matter what voters have to say about it in 2026.
You have to remember that the last three presidents, Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Trump in his first term, all saw their party lose control of the House in their first midterm elections. It is one of the more stable facts of American democracy: In midterms, public sentiment tends to go against the party in power.
Right now, Republicans hold one of the slimmest House majorities in history and have given Trump everything he has demanded. They have been a rubber stamp on his attempts to rule like a dictator. He does not want to lose that power, and so he is going to do everything he can to make sure Republicans do not lose the House. He’s doing so whether or not those methods are in line with the American constitutional order, including pushing red states to rig their maps to take away blue districts.
It is a desperate attempt to subvert the will of an American voting public that is already reacting strongly against Trump, whose approval numbers are tanking. So he is trying to change the rules of the game: letting the politicians choose their voters, instead of the other way around.
Republicans are being very clear about that. While introducing the Texas redistricting bill Wednesday, state Rep. Todd Hunter said: “The underlying goal of this plan is straightforward: improve Republican political performance.”
“Each of these newly drawn districts now trend Republican in political performance,” he continued. “While there’s no guarantee of an electoral success, Republicans will now have an opportunity to potentially win these districts, the five new districts.”
Well, at least they are being honest about their thievery.
But here’s what this battle over redistricting means in real terms. Republicans came into this Congress with a five-seat majority: 220-215. There have been some deaths and resignations, but all in fairly safe, partisan seats, leaving the composition at 219-215. So, if nothing else changed, all Democrats need to do to retake the House would be to pick up a net total of three Republican seats. Here’s how things change under the Texas Republican plan: that proposal basically flips five Democratic-held districts into Republican-leaning ones, meaning the Democrats would start midterms with a larger deficit to make up. But if the California redistricting process moves forward, Democrats could gain five more seats in the Golden State. Other Democratic states are talking about responding in kind. But it is all just talk at the moment. So if Texas and California both succeed in redistricting, they basically would cancel each other out and leave the balance of power in Congress where it is today. But here is the thing: Republicans aren’t stopping with Texas. They are looking to crack and pack blue districts in other states, including Florida, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio. These are already solidly red states. Even extreme gerrymandering would only net them a few more seats in each state. But they add up very quickly. If all five of those states were to maximize their districts for Republican gain, Trump’s party would start out next year’s midterms with a huge advantage. Now, other Democratic states are talking about responding in kind. But it is all just talk at the moment. New York might be able to add three seats to the Democrats’ advantage there, but under the state’s constitution, they cannot get it done before next year’s midterms. What California is doing is so important because it is the most straightforward lawful means that Democrats have to blunt this concerted attempt by Trump and Republicans nationwide to take as many American voters out of the next election as possible. This fight is just beginning, and California Democrats are showing their colleagues what sort of action is going to be needed to meet the moment.
Chris Hayes hosts “All In with Chris Hayes” at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday through Friday on MS NOW. He is the editor-at-large at The Nation. A former fellow at Harvard University’s Edmond J. Safra Foundation Center for Ethics, Hayes was a Bernard Schwartz Fellow at the New America Foundation. His latest book is “The Sirens’ Call: How Attention Became the World’s Most Endangered Resource” (Penguin Press).
Allison Detzel is an editor/producer for MS NOW.
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