“It’s the economy, stupid.”
The immortal words of Bill Clinton aide James Carville during the 1992 presidential campaign. The idea is that it’s the economy, above all else, that defines election races — and outcomes. We’re less than 16 months out from the next presidential election. So, how is the economy doing right now?
The conventional wisdom says, “Not good.”
Republicans say, “dangerous,” “horrible” and “the worst economy in 40 years,” … and they all blame “Bidenomics.”
The thing is, that Republican description of our economy is not just wrong, it’s a lie.
But the numbers don’t lie. And the numbers, the economic data, are on Joe Biden’s side. The economy is in way better shape than just about anyone predicted a year or two ago — and it’s rivaling economies under previous presidents, both Republican and Democratic.
Do I sound like a spokesperson for Joe Biden when I say this? Maybe. But you don’t have to take my word for it when it comes to our economic performance.
All you need to do is look at five key economic areas: Jobs. Manufacturing. Growth. Inflation. Wages.
1. Jobs
The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in June. It’s now been under 4% for 17 straight months. That hasn’t happened in more than half a century, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employers added an average 314,000 jobs a month this year through May. Plus another 200,000 last month. That’s almost 2 million new jobs in the economy this year alone.
In Donald Trump’s four years in office, the economy lost nearly 3 million jobs.
Of course, you might think that just means Biden is benefiting from a post-pandemic bounce back, but then you’d be wrong. We actually got all the pandemic jobs back by the summer of 2022 and in the 12 months since, we’ve added almost 4 million new jobs on top of that. We have gone way beyond pandemic recovery here.
Since taking office, Biden has added more than 13 million jobs to the economy, and he has created more jobs in two years than any other president has done in a full four-year term. In fact, so far he has created more jobs than the last three Republican presidents combined.
2. Manufacturing
Those job gains are being felt in heavy industries.
Remember, the previous president ran as the guy who was going to bring back manufacturing, But in fact, it’s Joe Biden who’s getting America, to borrow a phrase, to “build back better.”
Employment in U.S. manufacturing is at its highest level since George W. Bush was president.
800,000 new jobs and $200 billion in new investments by manufacturers, fueled by Biden’s new spending via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Chips and Science Act.
In fact, in a research note last month, the top economist for that well known socialist institution, Morgan Stanley, wrote that Biden’s Infrastructure Act is “driving a boom in large-scale infrastructure,” led by manufacturers and builders. More new roads and new homes are being constructed. In fact, Morgan Stanley says Biden’s economic policies have proven so strong that the bank was forced to revise its own estimates of U.S. growth upward.
3. Growth
Let’s talk about that growth.
Last week, new growth figures came out showing U.S. GDP grew at a 2.4% annual rate over the second quarter of this year. Way above the 2.0% that economists had expected. The U.S. economy is growing.
Don’t forget: For the past two years, we were fed a constant diet of recession predictions.
Not just on Fox. but across the entire political spectrum.
In fact, last year Bloomberg published this forecast pegging the odds of a recession in 2023 not at 80 percent, not at 90 percent, but at 100 percent!
It looked inevitable. Unavoidable. But it hasn’t happened. “Bidenomics” has not just prevented a new recession, it’s produced a rather unique post-crisis recovery. The last time we had a prolonged economic crisis, the Great Recession, President Barack Obama got us out of it, but it took four years for stocks to recover their lost ground and employment more than six years to get back to its pre-recession peak. The Biden recovery is faster and stronger. I know what you’re thinking. Isn’t that growth fueling higher consumer prices? Record inflation? Not anymore. Inflation dropped to 3% in June, according to government data released last month. That’s the lowest level since March 2021, and just slightly higher than the Fed’s ideal rate of 2%. Thanks to Bidenomics. Don’t believe me? Just look at the rest of the world. Something Republicans probably don’t want you to do, because for the past two years, they have tried to blame Biden alone for inflation, completely ignoring that it was a global phenomenon. When U.S. inflation was high, so was the rest of the world’s. Today, the rest of the world is still enduring high inflation rates, but America is not. The U.S. has the highest GDP growth rate of all the G7 countries over the past three years, by far, but also now, it has the lowest inflation rate. Inflation here is less than half the rate of Germany, Italy and the U.K. In fact, inflation has gone down for 12 straight months. If Republicans want to say Joe Biden is responsible for the high inflation, then they obviously they’ll now say he is responsible for the low inflation, right? You know what else is beating inflation now? Worker’s wages. They’re going up faster than the prices of goods; up more than 4%, since last year, higher than that 3% inflation rate. Americans are not just making more money, but saving more of it. A study of 9 million Americans shows they had 10% to 15% more money in the bank now than in 2019. Stronger wages and savings have led to something else: a drop in income inequality. Last year, the incomes of the bottom half of earners actually grew faster than the income of the top 10 percent. That could be a start towards closing the insanely high gap between America’s richest and poorest. Remember: None of this was inevitable or ‘the norm’ after a crisis. Just think about where we stood two and a half years ago, coming out of a pandemic recession. Think about where we were last year with seemingly runaway inflation and predictions of another recession. Then look at where we are now. A recession avoided, so far, inflation falling, and the lowest unemployment rate since Neil Armstrong arrived on the moon. Republicans keep using “Bidenomics” as an insult, but Bidenomics looks like nothing short of a miracle right now. This is an adapted excerpt from the July 27 episode of “The Mehdi Hasan Show.”
Mehdi Hasan
Mehdi Hasan is host of "The Mehdi Hasan Show" on Peacock and an MSNBC political analyst. He is a former senior columnist for The Intercept, for which he launched the "Deconstructed" podcast. He was also the presenter of "UpFront" and "Head to Head" on Al Jazeera English. He is the author of two books and the winner of the Society of Professional Journalists' 2018 Sigma Delta Chi Award for Online Column Writing. Recommended
4. Inflation
5. Wages
