Was it easy? No. Was it part of a dangerous hostage crisis that didn’t have to happen? Yes. Should anyone fully exhale before the package is signed into law before the x-date deadline that is less than a week away? Certainly not. But Democratic and Republican leaders set out to reach a budget agreement, and as NBC News reported, they struck a deal late on Saturday night.
Key negotiators struck an agreement in principle Saturday night to extend the debt ceiling and avert a catastrophic default, just days before the Treasury Department said the U.S. could run out of money, Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Saturday. … It follows weeks of negotiations led by President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, amid demands by the GOP to extract spending cuts in exchange for allowing the nation to continue to pay its bills.
The full legislative text was released yesterday, and a House vote is expected tomorrow. If it gets a simple majority in the lower chamber, it will still have to jump through some procedural hoops before receiving a vote in the Senate.
But as the dust settles on the weeks-long negotiating process, let’s pause to take stock of where things currently stand.
What’s in the deal?
As part of the agreement, the debt ceiling will be suspended until Jan. 1, 2025, at which point the Treasury Department would start using “extraordinary measures” to pay the nation’s bills — a process involving moving money around to prevent default — for several months. As for the budget, negotiators agreed to relatively modest spending caps for two years.
Also note, the parties agreed to make it easier for certain energy projects to get permits, and in an apparent nod to Sen. Joe Manchin, the package includes approval of a new gas pipeline in the conservative Democrat’s home state of West Virginia.
Does the bill cut spending?
Effectively, yes, though budget arithmetic can get a little tricky. As a New York Times report summarized, the deal “would limit all discretionary spending to 1 percent growth in 2025, which is effectively a budget cut, because that is projected to be slower than the rate of inflation.”
More specifically, funding for the military, veterans care, and entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare would not be cut under this agreement.
What about all the regressive right-wing demands House Republicans demanded?
Most of them were discarded during the bipartisan talks, and the Inflation Reduction Act that Republicans were determined to roll back remains intact, but GOP officials did not leave empty-handed: The deal rescinds roughly $28 billion in unspent Covid relief funds, scales back recent investments in the IRS, restarts federal student loan payments, and adds some work requirements on social insurance programs.
So is it a good deal or a bad deal?
From a progressive perspective, the possibility of a good deal evaporated the moment voters elected a Republican majority to the U.S. House in last fall’s midterm elections. But the Biden White House has spent the last couple of days telling Democratic lawmakers that this agreement could’ve been a whole lot worse, and by any measure, that’s a fair assessment. GOP hardliners went into this process with a ridiculous wish list and high expectations that they’d walk out big winners. That clearly hasn’t happened. Indeed, many of the conservative elements in the package likely would’ve been part of a bipartisan budget deal this year, whether Republicans launched a debt ceiling hostage crisis or not. Will it pass? House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Fox News on Sunday that “more than 95%“ of his conference is on board with the agreement. By all appearances, that was an exaggeration, but let’s not lose sight of just how small the Republicans’ four-member majority is in the chamber: If 5% of the House GOP balks, the bill would need Democratic votes to advance. As of last night, 10 House Republicans had announced their opposition to the bipartisan deal, and they were joined by an 11th member this morning. That number is likely to climb: Prominent far-right lawmakers are not just trashing the deal, they’re also scrambling to convince their colleagues to do the same. The conventional wisdom suggests the numbers will eventually be there, but as more GOP members walk away, the pressure grows on Democrats to get it across the finish line. [Update: The number jumped from 11 to 17 fairly quickly this morning.] As for the Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer issued a noncommittal statement on Sunday afternoon, though he concluded that senators “must avoid default and its grave consequences.” His Republican counterpart, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, endorsed the deal, though he’s facing pushback from a variety of his own members, including Texas’ Ted Cruz and Kentucky’s Rand Paul. Watch this space.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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