Shortly before Christmas, Congress approved the latest in a series of stopgap spending measures, preventing a government shutdown. In keeping with the recent pattern, Republican leaders in the House turned to Democrats, who provided most of the votes, despite the fact that the GOP was in the majority. The measure reset the clock, and gave federal lawmakers a new deadline: March 14.
For those hoping to avoid a breakdown, the good news is that there’s legislation on the table that would keep the government’s lights on and fund the federal government’s operations through the end of the fiscal year in September. The bad news is that the bill is pretty awful — and it’s not at all clear whether it can pass before Friday at midnight. NBC News reported on the latest pitch from House Speaker Mike Johnson.
It’s unclear whether it has the votes to pass either chamber, as it was not negotiated with Democrats, making it an important test for the new Republican trifecta on a must-pass bill that requires bipartisan backing to become law. President Donald Trump has backed Johnson’s approach and said he’ll sign the bill if it reaches his desk, which would avoid a shutdown less than two months into his term. “All Republicans should vote (Please!) YES next week,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post shortly after the bill was released.
The president’s use of the word “please” stood out, in large part because it’s a word he rarely uses in such a context. Trump tends to prefer barking orders, rather than publicly imploring GOP lawmakers to support legislation crafted in coordination with the White House.
Nevertheless, it’s an open question as to whether the Republican’s pleas will have the intended effect.
For House Democrats, whose votes are routinely needed for fiscal bills, the goal has long been to add new statutory restrictions to address White House abuses, specifically related to Elon Musk and the quasi-governmental Department of Government Efficiency. Without these safeguards, Democratic leaders have said, the party intends to oppose the spending bill (called a “continuing resolution,” or “CR”).
Not only does the Republicans’ bill ignore Democratic concerns on the DOGE front, it also increases defense spending, while reducing non-defense discretionary spending. Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, the Democratic vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, put together a list of glaring problems with the GOP legislation, and it wasn’t short.
So what’s next?
One possibility is that House Republican leaders will bring their bill to the floor; Democrats will stand firm against it; a handful of GOP members will balk; and the House speaker will have to scramble to come up with a Plan B.
Another possibility is that House Republican leaders will bring their bill to the floor and it’ll pass, either because some Democrats from red districts caved, because GOP members stuck together, or some combination of the two. At that point, the legislation would head to the Senate, where it would have to clear a 60-vote threshold. Would seven Senate Democrats vote to advance a conservative and overtly partisan House Republican bill? For now, that’s unclear, but if the answer is no, then the odds of a shutdown improve considerably. As the process moves forward, it’s also worth keeping an eye on local airports: There’s chatter that House Republican leaders hope to pass their bill and then leave town, basically giving the Senate a take-it-or-leave-it choice. If the legislation dies in the upper chamber, GOP leaders in the lower chamber would effectively say, “Don’t blame us; we passed a bill that would’ve prevented a shutdown.” (This is a legislative tactic generally known as “jamming.”) If, however, the Senate passes an amended version of the House bill, House Republicans would have to scramble to return to Capitol Hill and pass it before Friday night. I honestly don’t know what to expect, though the public won’t have to wait too long for clarity: The first House vote is expected within 24 hours. Watch this space.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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