As the Republican National Convention wrapped up four days ago, party officials could hardly believe their good fortune. Republican expectations had reached extraordinary heights, which was understandable under the circumstances: The party was united; their candidate was leading; their opponents were splintered; and the Democratic incumbent appeared on track to lose.
For his part, Donald Trump wasn’t just telling people privately he’d win, he’d also started talking about the post-election transition period, as if his 2024 victory were a given.
Everything was on track — until the race changed. The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta had a good report on this overnight, noting that Republicans, with striking speed, went from “cocky … to fearful,” in large part because they assumed President Joe Biden would never abandon his re-election candidacy.
Republicans I spoke with today, some of them still hungover from celebrating what felt to many like a victory-night celebration in Milwaukee, registered shock at the news of Biden’s departure. Party officials had left town believing the race was all but over. Now they were confronting the reality of reimagining a campaign—one that had been optimized, in every way, to defeat Biden—against a new and unknown challenger.
A Politico headline said the Republican Party was “pretty pissed” by the Democratic incumbent’s surprise announcement, adding, “It’s striking how much GOP anger there is over today’s news. Donald Trump’s campaign is built to beat Joe Biden.”
Democrats, meanwhile, have made a similar transition — from despair about a looming defeat to cautious hopes about a race reborn.
To be sure, there’s still some uncertainty about the process and the relevant details, and it’d be an overstatement to start describing Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee.
But let’s not play games. Delegates are on board with Harris. So are Democratic governors and members of Congress. And the Clintons. And Cabinet members. And labor unions. And donors — both large and small.
Perhaps most importantly, a Harris-vs-Trump contest offers contrasts that Democrats like. At this time 24 hours ago, the presidential race was a contest between two old and unpopular men. Now, barring any surprises, the contest is dramatically different.
In a year in which focus group members say they’re looking for a younger candidate, Republicans are running the oldest presidential nominee in American history against a likely Democratic candidate who’s nearly two decades younger. In a year in which many voters are concerned about crime, Republicans are running a man who’s committed dozens of felonies against a former prosecutor who’s brought criminals to justice. In a year in which some voters might care about experience, Republicans are running the least experienced presidential ticket in generations against a Democrat who’s spent the last 20 years serving the public well. I spoke to someone overnight who works in Democratic politics who said a Harris-Trump contest would be “the future vs the past.” No wonder Republicans are feeling anxious.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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