There’s something important that the non-Trump Republican presidential candidates need to know. It’s not a secret, but it’s a detail that the GOP’s White House hopefuls tend not to acknowledge, at least not publicly:
They’re losing.
In fact, it’s not an especially close race right now. Donald Trump currently enjoys a nearly 40-point advantage over his next closest competitor, and according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages, only 4 of the 11 candidates have support above 5%. Only a couple of the 11 have reached double digits.
To alter the direction of the Republican race, and prevent the scandal-plagued former president from simply cruising to the party’s nomination, the struggling candidates will need (a) something dramatic to happen to shake up the contest; and (b) to take advantage of those developments.
The good news for the 10 losing candidates is that something dramatic has happened: Trump has been indicted, four times, including several alleged crimes related to his alleged efforts to steal an election and seize illegitimate power. It’s the sort of bombshell news that would, in a normal political party operating in a normal political environment, end a candidacy for public office.
But it’s the second part of the equation that’s proving to be a problem: As the race gradually slips away from the 10 losing candidates, they don’t appear especially eager to take advantage of this rare opportunity to fundamentally change the intra-party contest.
The Des Moines Register, for example, reported on Sen. Tim Scott’s take on this week’s news.
Asked by reporters about new charges unveiled against Trump in Georgia, Scott pointed to a “legal system weaponized against political opponents that is un-American and unacceptable.”
Of course, in reality, as the South Carolina Republican probably knows, the legal system hasn’t been weaponized against anyone’s political opponents. What’s actually un-American and unacceptable is a failed president trying to stay in office after losing.
But Scott wasn’t alone. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also responded to the indictment by saying the charges against Trump are an example of the “criminalization of politics.”
Again, as a substantive matter, this is ridiculous. Prosecutors across multiple jurisdictions launched lengthy investigations, collected evidence, worked through the grand jury process, and secured indictments. If the GOP has evidence of a political conspiracy, the party has hid it well.
But as a tactical matter, these candidates aren’t doing their campaigns any favors. For all intents and purposes, Trump and his rivals are saying effectively the same things about the former president’s legal crisis.
To be sure, it’s genuinely dangerous to see a major political party try to convince the public not to trust their own country’s justice system, especially without a shred of evidence. But it’s also true as an electoral matter that the non-Trump candidates won’t succeed if they effectively respond to the frontrunner’s indictments by endorsing his talking points.
I realize that these Republicans are scared of their party’s base. Many rank-and-file Republican voters are convinced that prosecutors are now political enemies and the justice system has been corrupted, so for a national GOP candidate to go after Trump and side with law enforcement is to take a risk.
But the point is, when the frontrunner is up by nearly 40 points, taking some risks is probably a good idea. Trump is a suspected felon. Wouldn’t it make sense for his competitive rivals to make that a campaign issue?
