Latest polls set the stage for another Super Tuesday

When it comes to the primary calendar, it’s hard to top Super Tuesday’s electoral punch, but tomorrow will come close. Five big states — Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio — will hold contests, with 367 delegates on the line for Republicans, making it the second biggest day of the months-long race for the GOP nomination.

 

What should voters expect in the way of results? Some new polling has been released over the last few days, which at least offers a hint of what’s to come. Let’s break them down by states.

 

Florida (99 delegates)

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll: (1) Donald Trump: 43%; (2) Marco Rubio: 22%; (3) Ted Cruz: 21%; (4) John Kasich: 9%

 

Quinnipiac poll: (1) Donald Trump: 46%; (2) Marco Rubio: 22%; (3) Ted Cruz: 14%; (4) John Kasich: 10%

 

Florida Atlantic University poll: (1) Donald Trump: 44%; (2) Marco Rubio: 21%; (2) Ted Cruz: 21%; (4) John Kasich: 9%

 

Note, in two of these three surveys, Cruz is actually quite close to passing Rubio for second place. The Florida senator nevertheless insisted yesterday that the polls, which haven’t shown him ahead in his home state in nearly a year, are all wrong. [Update: A Monmouth University poll was released soon after I published this report, and it shows Trump leading Rubio in Florida, 44% to 27%. Last week, Monmouth found Rubio within eight points of Trump, 38% to 30%.]

Ohio (66 delegates)

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll: (1) John Kasich: 39% (2) Donald Trump: 33%; (3) Ted Cruz: 19%; (4) Marco Rubio: 6%

 

Quinnipiac poll: (1) John Kasich: 38% (2) Donald Trump: 38%; (3) Ted Cruz: 16%; (4) Marco Rubio: 3%

 

Recent polling has swung in the home-state governor’s direction and FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Kasich as the likely winner in Ohio. [Update: A Monmouth University poll was released this afternoon and it shows Kasich leading Trump in Ohio, 40% to 35%.]

 

Illinois (69 delegates)

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll: (1) Donald Trump: 34%; (2) Ted Cruz: 25%; (3) John Kasich: 21%; (4) Marco Rubio: 16%

 

There hasn’t been much polling in the Illinois primary, but these results are largely in line with the available data.

 

North Carolina (72 delegates)

 

PPP poll: (1) Donald Trump: 44%; (2) Ted Cruz: 33%; (3) John Kasich: 17%; (4) Marco Rubio: 7%

 

SurveyUSA poll: (1) Donald Trump: 48%; (2) Ted Cruz: 28%; (3) John Kasich: 12%; (4) Marco Rubio: 8%

 

Missouri (52 delegates)

 

Fort Hays State University poll: (1) Donald Trump: 36%; (2) Ted Cruz: 29%; (3) Marco Rubio: 9%; (4) John Kasich: 8%

 

Note, this is literally the first publicly available poll out of Missouri conducted in the last six months, so we have nothing to compare it against.

 

As for tomorrow’s significance, it’s also worth keeping in mind that while margins of victory tend to be a relevant detail, two of tomorrow’s contests — Florida and Ohio — are winner-take-all primaries when it comes to allocating delegates.

 

Postscript: Though it’s bound to receive far less attention, the Republican caucuses in the Northern Mariana Islands are also scheduled for tomorrow, with nine delegates at stake. The Democratic caucuses in the Northern Mariana Islands were held over the weekend.