Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears hoped winning the Republican nomination for governor of Virginia last month would help her party move past a primary season defined by lurid sex scandals and a boiling MAGA turf war. Instead, Earle-Sears is wrapping up her first month as nominee with a major campaign shake-up — and the GOP brand is facing an unprecedented losing streak.
On Thursday, Earle-Sears asked her campaign manager, Will Archer, to step aside. A pastor by trade, Archer had never managed a campaign or participated in politics before. When campaign finance filings published this week showed Democrat Abigail Spanberger outraising Earle-Sears by 2-to-1, Republican leaders finally convinced their candidate it was time to part with her inexperienced staffer.
Campaign finance filings published this week showed Democrat Abigail Spanberger outraising Earle-Sears by 2-to-1.
Earle-Sears’ campaign reshuffle comes at a moment when Virginia’s Republicans are trying, and failing, to convince voters they’re still a functional party. That’s proving a lot harder than Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Earle-Sears planned, because the state GOP just can’t seem to stop embarrassing itself in public.
Some fumbles have been especially striking. After nearly a decade topping the ranks of CNBC’s Top States for Business, Virginia just lost its coveted first place spot to neighboring North Carolina. It’s a ranking Youngkin takes seriously, to the point that he made attracting new businesses and defending the state’s ranking a key element of his 2021 campaign strategy. Safeguarding Virginia’s economic miracle was supposed to be Youngkin’s defining legacy.
Good luck selling Virginians on the GOP’s know-how today, when local magazines publish discount sections for laid-off federal workers and rural communities across the state brace for sweeping hospital and clinic closures. Far from being the governor who brightened Virginia’s economic flame, Youngkin is now permanently tarred in voters’ minds by his defense of President Donald Trump’s unpopular federal job cuts. It’s a reputation toxic enough to drag down his entire party.
Republicans are starting to see voters’ skepticism in their dwindling pool of political contributions. Spanberger’s $10.7 million in donations this quarter is nearly double Earle-Sears’ own $5.9 million haul. Those fundraising shortfalls cost Archer his job this week, but swapping out campaign staff won’t suddenly make Republican policies popular. And the numbers get even worse the deeper you go.
The campaign for lieutenant governor is also proving to be an absolute disaster for the GOP. In that race, scandal-plagued Republican nominee John Reid has seemingly given up fundraising at all. Reid raised only about $440,000 last quarter and only has $163,082 on hand, compared to Democratic nominee state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi’s $3.4 million. Hashmi also has nearly 10 times as much cash on hand as Reid.
At a time in the campaign when Republicans should be putting Democrats on the defensive, the GOP’s top two candidates are scrambling to keep the lights on. Virginians are getting a free preview of the mismanagement, disorder and chaos that would dominate an Earle-Sears administration. Virginia’s Democrats would like to make sure every voter gets a good, long look at Republicans’ political circus, and they’ve just got a huge assist from the Democratic National Committee. On July 15, DNC Chairman Ken Martin announced a $1.5 million contribution to Democratic Party of Virginia, a notable sum for the national party to invest in an off-year state race and a sign of confidence in the party’s chances in November. That money will build campaign infrastructure and hire staff in key legislative districts, ultimately allowing Democrats to reach more voters more effectively. Republicans’ problems are multiplied by the fact that Democrats are competing in every House of Delegates district this year, forcing cash-strapped Republicans to spend more money on more races for longer than anyone budgeted. At their current fundraising levels, GOP officials will soon need to make tough choices about where to cut back — just as the DNC’s $1.5 million cash infusion hits Democratic campaign accounts. While Democrats prepare to embark on a summer spending spree, Earle-Sears’ campaign is busy fending off accusations from a top MAGA official that her campaign is a “clown car” skidding towards disaster. Spanberger and Democrats have leapt into the lead by making this year’s election a referendum on competence. Virginia’s dysfunctional Republicans don’t stand a chance.
Max Burns is a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies. Find him on X, @themaxburns. 
