They said this day would never come. After decades of allegedly evading taxes, skirting the law, allegedly obstructing justice, and facing civil judgments for fraud and sexual assault, Donald Trump has finally been held criminally accountable.
From the perspective of the rule of law, Thursday was a great day in American history: A former president was deemed guilty by a jury of his peers, proving (at least for one day) the foundational ideal that all Americans are equal under the law.
But what does all this mean politically? Anyone who tells you with absolute certainty that they know the answer to that question can probably be ignored. Never before has a major party’s presidential nominee been convicted of a felony. We’re entering unprecedented political territory.
A felony conviction is just one more data point to put in the “con” column.
Not surprisingly, conventional wisdom about Thursday’s verdict is that it won’t matter because, after all, when it comes to Trump, nothing seems to matter. Common sense, however, suggests that Trump’s conviction is likely to be more than just a political flesh wound.
Yes, the former president’s supporters stuck with him after he was impeached twice, incited a mob to storm the Capitol on Jan. 6, was found liable for sexual assault in a civil court and was indicted four times in a single calendar year. That’s not even taking into account the myriad scandals and offensive remarks that would have felled the political career of practically any other presidential candidate. So, it’s reasonable to expect that this verdict will change little — just another iniquity to be piled on all the others in the compartmentalized space inside the brains of Trump cult members.
Recent polling on this question provides little clarity. A new NPR-Marist poll (which shows President Joe Biden slightly ahead) found that 67% of registered voters said a guilty verdict could have no impact on their vote. One can likely assume that many of those people are Biden supporters who have no intention of ever voting for the former president. Around 15% said a guilty verdict would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 17% said less likely.
But it’s hard to take these poll results seriously now. None of us can know how the words “Donald Trump, convicted felon” will play with the small percentage of voters who are truly up for grabs in November.
For probably 85%-90% of the electorate, their voting decision has already been made. These are lifelong Democrats or Republicans who tend to vote the same way in every election and certainly won’t change their minds now. But does this guilty verdict make the other 10%-15% of the electorate — the fence-sitters — more or less likely to support Trump?
Again, much is unknown, but it’s hard to imagine that it will help the former president. For low-information but undecided voters, a felony conviction is just one more data point to put in the “con” column (forgive the pun).
Trump’s never-ending tales of woe somehow appeal to his core supporters, but again, what about those fence-sitting Americans?
For all the public cynicism toward America’s democratic institutions, most Americans have been called for jury duty and have served or known someone who did. As I wrote after the first week of the trial, “a majority of Americans see jury duty as an integral part of being a good citizen, and most have confidence in the jury system … It’s quite possible that a great many political pundits are playing down the confidence and respect that Americans have for the jury system and the deliberations of their fellow citizens.”
It doesn’t take many voters to be swayed by a Trump guilty verdict to influence the outcome of the election. In 2020, Biden won Georgia and Arizona by less than 12,000 and 10,000 votes, respectively. In Wisconsin, his margin was 20,000. Even small swings in the electorate, particularly for a candidate who has not topped 47% of the popular vote in either of his previous presidential runs, can be crucial.
There is also the larger psychological factor — and I don’t just mean for the electorate. Trump has fixated on this trial, sending one unhinged post after another on Truth Social, complaining about the judge and the “rigged” trial that has now led to a guilty verdict. Anyone expecting that to slow down, now that Trump has been convicted, has likely been in hibernation for the past nine years. Trump doesn’t just dwell on his supposed victimization — he marinates in it.
Would any of us be surprised if Trump spends the next few months on the campaign trail railing against his guilty verdict amid his more traditional complaints about the “rigged 2020 election” or the adverse verdicts in the E. Jean Carroll defamation trials and the New York civil fraud prosecution?
Trump’s never-ending tales of woe somehow appeal to his core supporters, but again, what about those fence-sitting Americans? Do Trump’s Festivus-like campaign speeches begin to wear thin for them?
Ultimately, that might be the biggest impact from Thursday’s verdict — not necessarily an overnight shift in the polls, but a begrudging acceptance from fed-up voters that while they may not love Biden, there is simply too much drama with Trump, and they just don’t want to return him to the White House for the next four years.
From that perspective, the impact of Trump’s felony conviction might end up more like a whimper than a bang … but, sometimes, even a whimper can be decisive.
Michael A. Cohen is a political writer and a fellow with the Eurasia Group Foundation.