Conventional political wisdom suggests the first criminal trial of Donald Trump, which got underway in Manhattan last week, will have a minimal effect on the 2024 election. Many political observers see the allegations — covering up hush money payments ahead of the 2016 election — as relatively trifling, and certainly not comparable to the other three indictments Trump faces in Florida, Georgia and Washington, D.C. Even a guilty verdict in the trial would “be unlikely to have a big influence come November,” declared an analyst for ABC News.
Perhaps that’s true. But in the meantime, the contrast between Biden and Trump could not be more stark — and that will have enduring, potentially decisive political influence.
Make no mistake, this is a serious political problem for Trump — and one that’s only going to get worse.
This week, Joe Biden was in Pennsylvania campaigning for re-election. He called for new tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from China before a union crowd in Pittsburgh. And in his hometown of Scranton, he attacked Trump for supporting tax policies that favor the wealthy. Meanwhile, Trump was stuck in a Manhattan courtroom, as jurors were selected for his trial.
Make no mistake, this is a serious political problem for Trump — and one that’s only going to get worse. Opening statements in the trial begin on Monday. As things stand, Trump will likely spend much of May in court. While Biden will be out on the campaign trail, meeting with and talking to voters about why he deserves another term in office, Trump will be in Manhattan trying to convince 12 jurors not to find him guilty of falsifying business records in order to hide a hush money payment to a former porn star.
Every day spent in court is a day that Trump can’t be out on the hustings talking to supporters or raising money for a fall campaign in which he already trails Biden badly in fundraising. Candidate appearances usually give a modest boost to a presidential campaign. Losing that opportunity for more than a month cannot be a positive development.
Merely from an image-making standpoint, what’s better: a candidate sitting at a defense table several hours a day or a candidate shaking hands with his supporters?
For Trump’s MAGA base, the New York City trial will likely only increase their support for the former president. For them, any attempt to hold Trump accountable for his actions is “election interference” and a plot by Democrats to ensure Biden’s re-election.
And what if Trump is found guilty? Then, things will only get worse.
But what about the rest of the country? It’s easy to imagine that images of Trump in a courtroom will remind Americans of the never-ending drama that defined his four years in office — and not in a good way.
And what if Trump is found guilty? Then, things will only get worse. According to a recent YouGov poll, 57% of Americans say that if Trump is convicted of a serious crime, he shouldn’t “be allowed to serve as president again in the future.” Of course, it’s also true that a YouGov poll in January found that 56% of respondents ranked the New York case as the least important of Trump’s multiple indictments. But that’s easy to say before a possible felony conviction.
A majority of Americans see jury duty as an integral part of being a good citizen, and most have confidence in the jury system. Is non-MAGA America likely to see a Trump conviction as a partisan exercise or rather an example of the criminal justice system working as it should? It’s quite possible that a great many political pundits are playing down the confidence and respect that Americans have for the jury system and the deliberations of their fellow citizens.
Considering Trump’s tenuous political position — and the narrowness of the 2024 polls — if just a small percentage of voters are swayed by a guilty verdict, it could have a seismic political impact. And that’s not even taking into account the other criminal trials that Trump is still facing.
From an optics and resources standpoint, Trump’s trial represents a rough several weeks for his campaign. And if he’s convicted, it could prove fatal. To those pundits who believe Trump’s legal odyssey is much ado about nothing — think again.
Michael A. Cohen is a political writer and a fellow with the Eurasia Group Foundation.