The moment you cross the New York City boundary into Long Island, you’re greeted with SUVs bearing “Thin Blue Line” bumper stickers. This is Lee Zeldin country — and to an extent, Trump country — and the lawn signs dotting every intersection make that clear. Drive a little farther out east to the heart of Zeldin’s stronghold and a “Let’s Go Brandon” T-shirt won’t raise an eyebrow.
You may not know the third-term Republican congressman and Trump loyalist who represents a large swath of one of the island’s two counties; but did you know there’s a strong possibility he could be elected governor?
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, squaring off against Republican Zeldin in most other years wouldn’t elicit more than a yawn in the reliably blue state.
While we focus on high profile, consequential races in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona from now until Nov. 8, the New York gubernatorial race continues to fly under the radar despite its huge stakes. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, squaring off against Republican Zeldin in most other years wouldn’t elicit more than a yawn in the reliably blue state. But with crime and high inflation top of mind for voters in both parties, Zeldin has identified a lane to make himself a contender — even with women’s bodily autonomy on the ballot.
Follow our 2022 midterm elections live blog at msnbc.com/midterms beginning Nov. 7 for the latest results, news and expert analysis in real time.
Though New Yorkers haven’t elected a Republican governor in 20 years, a steady stream of fearmongering about crime and attempts to retcon his anti-abortion record has led to a late surge in the polls for the three-term congressman. After a random shooting occurred right outside his home earlier this month, Zeldin seized the opportunity to hold a news conference about how it demonstrated the public safety threat all New Yorkers now face. “I didn’t think that the next time I’d be standing in front of a crime scene, it would be crime scene tape in front of my own house,” he said the following day. And in the lone gubernatorial debate Tuesday evening, Zeldin brought up the extreme example of a Mexican cartel drug smuggler who was released on cashless bail to make the point that any leniency in the criminal justice system is a sign of weakness.
Hochul’s campaign hasn’t been perfect: She seems a little too comfortable being a Democrat in a blue state that Biden won by a large margin, and at no point — either in the debate or throughout the campaign — has she been as aggressive as Zeldin. And despite the fact that nine New York counties made U.S. News and World Report’s Top 25 Safest Communities in America list (including Zeldin’s home county, Suffolk), Zeldin has managed to convince a worrying number of voters that the state is a crime-ridden hellscape with the help of local right-wing media feeding the idea that bail reform has flooded the streets with violent criminals. Despite a plan released in tandem with Attorney General Letitia James to combat gun violence with expanded red flag laws, Hochul has been unable to make it clear to voters exactly how she plans to reduce crime on New York City subways other than following Mayor Eric Adams’ master plan to make cops omnipresent.
And so, even in the midst of the Supreme Court upending abortion rights, New York Democrats are being forced to entertain the possibility of a Republican taking charge in Albany who is, as Hochul put it in their debate, an election denier, a climate change denier and a Covid-19 denier.
Zeldin swooped into Tuesday’s debate like Batman, offering himself as the savior to a state supposedly in great peril.
Zeldin swooped into Tuesday’s debate like Batman, offering himself as the savior to a state supposedly in great peril. “I’m here for one reason: to save our state and deliver a safer, freer future for you and your family,” Zeldin said, looking straight into the camera. “New York is in crisis. We’ve experienced on so many levels attacks on our wallets, our safety, our freedom, your children’s education. You’re poorer and less safe because of Kathy Hochul and extreme policies. This is your opportunity to save New York.”
From the beginning, the juxtaposition between the two was clear: Zeldin was animated but irritated, his every word dripping in disdain for his opponent and the liberal values that she represents. Hochul, on the other hand, was subdued: She came across as relaxed and confident, and seemed to make sure not to match Zeldin’s energy, lest she be deemed hysterical. She perfectly distilled the Zeldin ethos when she told the audience: “He sent text messages trying to support the big lie. And he opposes sensible gun safety laws, as well as opposing a woman’s right to choose. That’s what’s on the line here tonight.”
And indeed she’s right. Though he claims that New York’s abortion laws won’t fundamentally change under a Zeldin administration, his record as a congressman says otherwise. Zeldin is a current co-sponsor of the Life at Conception Act, a law proposed in Congress that defines a human being as “every member of the species homo sapiens at all stages of life, including the moment of fertilization, cloning, or other moment at which an individual member of the human species comes into being.” It’s an attempt to establish fetal personhood, a tactic used by many anti-abortion legislators and advocates to make the safe medical procedure illegal.
This spring, Zeldin was recorded telling the anti-abortion group Right to Life, “I’m not going to change my position on this [abortion] based on any poll.” And when asked in the Long Island Coalition for Life’s candidate questionnaire, “Would you vote to deny taxpayer funding for Planned Parenthood?” Zeldin answered “yes.” Despite an unprecedented federal attack on women’s bodily autonomy, the central issue of this race has become crime. Zeldin has repeatedly said he plans to reverse cashless bail, a reform that took effect in 2020 aimed at easing the rate of pre-trial mass incarceration for misdemeanors and nonviolent offenses and has become the boogeyman du jour of New York Republicans — and even a few Democrats. But as the debate moderator pointed out, the state Division of Criminal Justice Services says that the rate of rearrest has remained statistically the same since the reforms were passed. This didn’t stop Zeldin from griping, “we’re going to go through this whole crime conversation waiting for Kathy Hochul to talk about locking up criminals.” But after Donald Trump, and Hochul’s predecessor Andrew Cuomo, and the many troubled men of New York politics, aggressiveness is not what we need. Fear is not what we need. And after making it through the worst of the pandemic, the grim reaper, as Hochul called Zeldin, is certainly not who we need at the helm. But Zeldin has made a compelling case for himself: If Hochul wants to stick her closing argument, she needs to make it clear that his claims about crime are disingenuous, that he is vehemently anti-abortion, and that he would sow chaos and gridlock in a Democratic legislature, making meaningful change impossible. “I’m not governing by soundbites,” Hochul said. “I’m governing by sound policy.” But in order to win, Hochul needs a bark to match the bite required to secure this essential Democratic win.
Marisa Kabas
Marisa Kabas writes about politics, media and gender and their many intersections. Her work has appeared in Rolling Stone, HuffPost and The New Republic, and she writes a newsletter called The Handbasket. She is based in Brooklyn, New York. 
