President Donald Trump is warning America that his economic plan could cause pain, unsettling the American public and financial markets. He’s not hiding it — he’s openly selling the idea that tariffs, government layoffs and cuts to social programs will send the economy into a downturn. His argument? That a recession now will lead to some vague “golden age” later. But that’s not how economies work.
Recessions aren’t detox cleanses; they don’t flush out inefficiencies and leave you leaner and stronger. They are periods of mass job losses, closed businesses and financial ruin that leave lasting scars on families, workers and entire communities.
Recessions aren’t detox cleanses; they don’t flush out inefficiencies and leave you leaner and stronger.
We know this because we’ve lived it — and not even that long ago. The 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession didn’t make the U.S. economy more efficient — it wiped out a generation of wealth, particularly for Black and Latino families, and left millions behind. The recession caused by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic deepened inequality and exacerbated housing insecurity, despite the fastest policy response in modern history.
Recessions don’t set the stage for prosperity; they cause long-term damage that even a decade of growth can’t fully undo.
To be sure, some economists have argued recently that fears of a recession are possibly overblown. But an economic plan focused on causing deliberate harm to the American economy relies on old, discredited thinking: that recessions purge the system of waste, discipline workers into accepting lower wages and force companies to innovate.
In reality, recessions kill small businesses while the biggest corporations consolidate power. They drive up unemployment, forcing workers to take worse jobs for lower pay, and they weaken the very public institutions — like schools, health care and infrastructure — that enable long-term economic growth.
Even worse, the current slate of proposed policies would actively make the economy more fragile.
Imposing broad tariffs would raise prices for consumers and manufacturers alike, increasing inflation while slowing down economic activity. Mass layoffs of government workers wouldn’t lead to leaner government — it would gut essential public services, hurting businesses that rely on those workers’ paychecks. And cutting Medicaid and Social Security wouldn’t create a more “dynamic” workforce; it would push millions into poverty, reduce consumer spending and force older Americans to stay in the workforce longer, crowding out younger workers from job opportunities.
We don’t have to theorize about what works. The past four years of economic policy have demonstrated how to grow an economy the right way: by investing in people.
Since 2021, the U.S. economy has outperformed most other advanced economies, achieving strong gross domestic product growth beyond expectations. Here’s why. The past four years of economic policy have demonstrated how to grow an economy the right way: by investing in people. The American Rescue Plan injected direct financial relief into households, expanded the child tax credit and extended unemployment benefits, boosting consumer spending, preventing mass layoffs and cutting child poverty to record lows. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law accelerated investment in long-overdue infrastructure projects, creating jobs across industries like construction, transportation and water management while saving the average American household $700 per year. Meanwhile, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act have revitalized domestic manufacturing, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains — all while keeping unemployment at historic lows. Rather than forcing hardship in the name of a distant, uncertain recovery, these policies focused on expanding economic opportunity in real time. This approach works because economic growth isn’t just about GDP figures — it’s about people’s ability to build secure, thriving lives. When workers have good wages and stable jobs, they spend money in their communities, supporting local businesses and driving demand. When public investments create new industries, they lay the foundation for long-term prosperity. And when economic policies prioritize affordability — lowering the cost of prescription drugs, housing and child care — they ensure that growth is shared, not just hoarded by the wealthiest few. The Trump administration’s vision is clear: force a recession, break the public sector and weaken social protections, all hoping that something better will emerge on the other side. But history has shown us what actually happens — higher inequality, lower wages and an economy rigged even further in favor of the ultrawealthy. Economic downturns don’t just disappear once the pain subsides; they leave behind long-term damage.
Ali Bustamante
Dr. Alí Bustamante is the director of worker power and economic security at the Roosevelt Institute. 
