On his Truth Social account, Donald Trump has spent the last few days posting maps of Greenland, picking fights with California’s governor, whining about his legal cases and sharing letters from has-been celebrities (Don King, anyone?). In opening his press conference Tuesday, the former and future president briefly (and falsely) claimed that “inflation is continuing to rage” before devoting his time to griping about the Green New Deal, Democrats “playing with the courts,” showerheads and windmills “driving the whales crazy,” among other subjects.
Trump’s choice of topics is always instructive, and last week’s press conference was a far cry from the one he held last August, when he used a collection of groceries as props to hammer Democrats on inflation. Suddenly, it seems Trump doesn’t want to talk so much about the economy anymore.
The good news only makes it harder for Trump to untangle himself from his campaign promise.
One reason is that, before Trump enters office, his predecessor Joe Biden isn’t giving him much bad economic news to talk about. Last week, officials reported that the U.S. added 256,000 jobs in December as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% and wages grew 3.9% for the year. Inflation has been under 3% since the summer and economic growth is still strong.
The good news only makes it harder for Trump to untangle himself from his campaign promise that prices will “come down fast” once he is in office. Last month, he told Time magazine that — surprise, surprise — “it’s hard to bring things down once they’re up.” An hour into Tuesday’s press conference, Trump backed off even further, admitting that if his administration does reduce inflation, “we won’t do it fast.”
But there are negatives for Trump to trumpet if he wants to: Stocks dropped sharply Friday, as the strong jobs report and low inflation greatly reduced the chances of more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. And despite recent Fed rate cuts, other interest rates continued recent increases: Interest on 30-year mortgages neared 7% last week, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield neared its highest level in more than a year.
Which brings us to another reason why Trump may be more comfortable not talking about those negatives: the probable consequences of his own policies. Even he has admitted that he “can’t guarantee” his proposed tariffs won’t raise prices. You don’t have to be an economist to see how those tariffs, combined with his other top priorities of tax cuts and mass deportations, are likely to prove inflationary in the long run as well. But economists definitely see it, and so do the financial markets. That means, as Paul Krugman wrote last week, that those rising long-term rates “might reflect the horrible, creeping suspicion that Donald Trump actually believes the crazy things he says about economic policy and will act on those beliefs.”
As Trump admitted Tuesday, inflation is “one of the reasons I won.” Sure, most Trump voters were always going to vote Republican anyway, but rising prices around the world have toppled governments of all political persuasions. According to Democratic strategist Anat Shenker-Osorio, swing voters and disaffected Democrats in her focus groups during the election repeatedly cited price increases under Biden as “tangible memories that abstract-seeming future threats could not dislodge.”
There are signs that Democrats recognize the message discipline the moment calls for. Even if voters will remember Biden’s economic record poorly, his successor enters office with low inflation, low unemployment and strong job and wage growth. As The New Republic’s Greg Sargent wrote Friday, “this will be the second time Trump inherits a good economy from a Dem president, the second time Trump takes credit for his inheritance, and quite possibly the second time he destroys it.” Democrats must make him own that, whether he wants to talk about it or not. If Trump doesn’t want to talk about the economy, Democrats can fill the vacuum. But they must organize — and quickly. There are signs that Democrats recognize the message discipline the moment calls for. “House Democrats are focused on lowering the high cost of living in America,” Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries posted after Trump’s press conference, “Not invading Greenland.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer sounded a similar note: “Renaming the Gulf of Mexico may be a zany new idea, but it isn’t going to help people save money at the grocery store.” It’s a start. And in the face of a Republican trifecta, Trump’s ability to command the news cycle, and tech oligarchs’ embrace of mis- and disinformation, Democrats need a message as straightforward as it is loud. Unemployment up? Trump’s fault. House prices too high? Trump’s fault. Groceries too expensive? Trump’s fault. The man who wants credit for everything must be blamed for everything. And the sooner the party can agree on a new economic platform for the midterms, the better. In the last 50 years, the biggest midterm victories for both parties — 1974, 2006 and 2018 for the Democrats, 1994 and 2010 for the Republicans — were built on clear and consistent cases against the party holding the White House. There’s a reason that organizing Democrats is often compared to herding cats. But disciplined opposition is the only way forward. And that starts with what’s most important to voters: their pocketbooks.
James Downie is an opinion editor for MS NOW Daily. 
