In 1990, I helped elect Texas’ most recent Democratic governor (Ann Richards) and lieutenant governor (Bob Bullock). The following year, as an adviser to Lt. Gov. Bullock, I was part of the redistricting effort following the 1990 census. Oh, how politics and policy have changed today in the state I still call home.
The maps drawn in 1991 favored Democratic politicians, but Bullock went out of his way to invite Republicans in to be part of the redistricting discussion and provide input. A number of the congressional and state legislative districts were considered swing seats, which many of us considered good for our state and country.
In the short term, Democrats must not unilaterally disarm.
It seems that since 1991, as new technology allows increased political gerrymandering and the spread of partisan polarization, politicians have chosen to drastically reduce the number of swing seats in any given state. And as voters inherently dislike politicians’ choosing their voters through gerrymandering, there has been a rise in citizen-led independent redistricting commissions. Michigan is the best example of that ideal in politics, and its commission functioned very well in reducing gerrymandering and increasing the number of swing districts.
But now, the country is going in the exact opposite direction. On Wednesday, the Texas legislature passed a highly unusual mid-decade redistricting map, with the goal of eliminating five “Democratic” districts. California and other Democratic-leaning states are threatening to do the same to “Republican” districts.
I completely understand this reaction. We can’t have a representative democracy if blue states follow the ideal of independent redistricting and reduce partisan districts while red states follow raw partisan politics and create as many GOP districts as possible. In the short term, if Democrats don’t draw partisan districts, they would most likely be ceding a permanent majority to the GOP in the House of Representatives.
None of this is good for our democracy. Drawing nearly every district as uncompetitive in a general election means we have elections decided by a few partisans, not the broader electorate. And governance becomes more partisan as there are fewer politicians willing to compromise or to vote with the other side. This shift is already evident in Washington over the last few years, and it will only get worse as we have more red and blue districts and fewer purple ones.
This all reminds me of the proliferation of nuclear weapons: As each country matches or one-ups the other, it increases the risk of “MAD” — mutually assured destruction. In this case, the long-term result of such a race to the bottom is the destruction of our representative democracy. So what is the solution?
I think the path out of this radioactive debate is threefold:
First, in the short term, Democrats must not unilaterally disarm. The GOP must understand that its efforts to gain a partisan edge will be minimal compared with the damage to democracy. Maybe this race to the bottom will have to continue before we can come together and reverse course. Second, we must all speak out against the Republicans who have brought us to the brink of political war. This is especially true in Texas, which is the epicenter of this controversy. And voters must hold Texas Republican politicians accountable at the ballot box. What would be poetic justice is if the new GOP-drawn districts in Texas backfire and voters replace Republicans with Democrats in Congress. Finally, it is clearer than ever that while citizen-led independent redistricting commissions are necessary, they need to be instituted in every state in a similar way. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., introduced a bill with this goal in 2021, but Republicans blocked it. Gerrymandering remains unpopular with Americans, and as the redistricting brinkmanship continues, I think the necessity of a nationwide solution will become more and more apparent and agreeable to voters. As the weaponization of redistricting moves from Texas to California and other states, the fight for democracy continues. Maybe this race to the bottom will have to continue before we can come together, reverse course and give everyone a real voice in their representation. In the short term, this trend is incredibly scary, but in the long term, I still have trust in American voters.
Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd is an American commentator, bestselling author and MSNBC political analyst. He was the chief strategist for the Bush–Cheney 2004 presidential campaign and the chief political analyst for ABC News for more than a decade. 
