This week’s New York 3rd Congressional District election was a much-needed shot in the arm for Democrats reeling from one of President Joe Biden’s toughest weeks yet. But for the most part, Rep. Tom Suozzi’s victory over opponent Mazi Pilip drowned out a major Democratic win in Pennsylvania that could have sweeping implications for the 2024 presidential election. It’s also the latest evidence that Democrats are still overperforming at the ballot box.
Jim Prokopiak’s win in Pennsylvania’s 140th state House district isn’t a partisan flip like Suozzi’s. Nevertheless, it is a decisive step in preventing Pennsylvania’s MAGA Republicans from undermining the integrity of the state’s November election results. By keeping Trump’s authoritarian hands off how Pennsylvania counts and certifies its general election results, Prokopiak may well have ensured a free and fair election in the Keystone State.
By keeping Trump’s authoritarian hands off how Pennsylvania counts and certifies its general election results, Prokopiak may well have ensured a free and fair election in the Keystone State.
“Republicans continue to lie about the last election and are intent on supporting an insurrectionist as their nominee, ever since 60-plus legislators signed a letter urging Congress to throw out the votes of Pennsylvania’s voters,” said state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who represents parts of Philadelphia. “Their current idea is putting the Auditor General in charge of auditing all future elections — a man who himself is an election denier.”
Critically, Prokopiak’s victory gives Pennsylvania Democrats some much-needed breathing room after two years of uncertainty. Democrats recaptured the state House in 2022 with a razor-thin one-vote majority, until a Democratic resignation last December returned the chamber to tie. But just last week, another resignation — this time of a Republican — returned Democrats to power with a one-seat majority. Some Democrats openly fretted that a single absent lawmaker could leave the House open to Republican trickery.
There’s a whole lot riding on Democrats retaining control of the state House. Prokopiak’s win means state Democrats will be able to fend off a tidal wave of MAGA-backed efforts to make Pennsylvania’s election laws more Trump-friendly, as well as harsh anti-abortion legislation drawn up by far-right state legislators. The Pennsylvania GOP’s antidemocratic tendencies have only worsened since the party swore allegiance to Trump in the wake of the former president’s humiliating 2020 election loss.
The sheer size of Prokopiak’s victory also matters. Pennsylvania’s 140th District is reasonably safe Democratic territory; Biden won the area by 10% back in 2020. On Tuesday, Prokopiak crushed Republican challenger Candace Cabanas by a staggering 35-point margin. In February, Bolts Magazine listed Prokopiak’s electoral performance as a key bellwether of Democrats’ broader health across Pennsylvania. With numbers like we saw Tuesday, Democrats are finally breathing easier.
This is especially true for the activists, organizers and elected officials who make up Pennsylvania’s Democratic base. Prokopiak brought Democrats out in droves, thanks to a campaign that focused on national issues such as reproductive freedom, as well as local priorities including funding public education and addressing the state’s affordable housing challenges.
“When Democrats follow the lead of people like Jim Prokopiak and focus on working class issues like reproductive rights and workers’ rights, they win,” Rick Smith, a labor organizer and host of the labor-focused podcast, “The Rick Smith Show,” told me. “When Democrats get pulled into fruitless culture war debates, they lose. It’s time to stop bickering over nonsense that divides us.”
Kenyatta agrees. “This year alone, we proved what even a humble majority can do: the largest investment in K-12 education, expanding the child and dependent tax credit, and advancing an increase of the minimum wage. People want to see us govern and we aren’t letting them down.”
Pennsylvania will be just as crucial for Biden’s path to victory this year as it was in 2020. At the time, the Trump campaign and its allies poured almost $100 million into Pennsylvania in an effort to hold on to a state that Trump had won just four years prior. In the end, Biden squeaked by with a bare 50% of the vote against Trump’s 48.8%. Those same Republicans raised hopes of a close race in Pennsylvania’s 140th District. Instead, they faced a defeat that will almost certainly change the GOP’s state strategy ahead of November. Part of that change will likely be an all-out effort to distance state and local Republican candidates from Trump’s MAGA brand. Cabanas struggled from the beginning to make MAGA ideology appealing to voters outside the Trump bubble. For his part, Prokopiak spent heavily on advertising that tied Cabanas tightly to the MAGA movement, especially her support for Florida-style school book bans. Like Suozzi in New York, Prokopiak discovered the effective campaign strategy of forcing Republicans to reconcile their Trumpian beliefs with a public that finds those beliefs repulsive. Suozzi’s opponent, Mazi Pilip, never fully explained how her views on immigration differed from Trump’s. In Pennsylvania, Cabanas was trying and failing to pry herself away from Trump on education policy. Both candidates failed and were then punished by skeptical voters. Prokopiak’s victory in Pennsylvania adds to Democrats’ almost two-year-long record of overperforming in special elections, and while it may not generate as much national buzz as Suozzi’s performance in New York, it’s just as important for the future of our democracy. Voters are clearly getting tired of firebrand candidates who parrot Trumpism without a single policy thought of their own. Prokopiak just proved that voter disgust runs straight through the heart of Trump’s electoral strategy. “People who underestimate Joe Biden and Democrats do so at their own peril,” Kenyatta told me. “The president is going to win Pennsylvania.” If Prokopiak is any indication, Kenyatta is right.
Max Burns is a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies. Find him on X, @themaxburns. 
