The fate of Pete Hegseth’s chances to be the next secretary of defense may still be in the hands of Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa. But, for now, she kindly requests that you ask someone else about it.
In issuing a statement this week pledging to “support Pete through this process,” Ernst has sought to remove herself from the spotlight, one that shines hotter than ever in the Trump era.
Ernst, deliberately or not, found herself as a main character in the Hegseth confirmation drama. A survivor of sexual assault and military veteran herself, she has obvious questions about Hegseth’s views on women in combat, as well as an accusation of sexual misconduct against him (for which he was not charged and which he denies).
Ernst, deliberately or not, found herself as a main character in the Hegseth confirmation drama.
We should not doubt Ernst’s sincerity about these issues. And she may well still vote against him. But her more positive tone Monday — after a chilly first meeting last week — reinforces that we are in a new era of politics. And it may forever upend how we view the Senate’s role filling the president’s Cabinet.
President-elect Donald Trump’s allies, most notably Elon Musk, have engaged in an outside campaign to pressure senators to support Hegseth. And Trump himself has indicated he’s willing to fight for this one, with little concern for the Senate’s prerogatives to vet nominees.
The problems that have sunk previous nominees – like hiring an undocumented worker or mean tweets — seem quaint compared to those surrounding Hegseth. A cash settlement to silence a sexual assault allegation is compounded by reports of financial mismanagement of nonprofit groups he ran and concerns about substance use on the job. (Hegseth has also denied these allegations.)
It’s not often a good sign for your prospects when you find yourself promising not to drink during a job interview. And yet Hegseth’s nomination is very much alive.
His confirmation hearings, assuming he makes it that far, are sure to be brutal. Democrats on the Armed Services Committee will make sure of that. Even Republicans who sit on the committee and care deeply about our men and women in uniform will want answers to questions about his fitness. America’s safety and security, after all, are the stakes.
The stakes for senators like Ernst, though, are also political. Here it must be noted that Ernst is up for re-election in 2026. For her, like so many Republicans from red states, making it through the GOP primary is everything. And becoming the face of the resistance to a popular figure on the right is not ideal territory to start your re-election bid — just ask any of the elected Republicans who lost to Trump-backed primary challengers or retired before they could suffer such a fate. And sure enough, the not-so-veiled threats to run a primary candidate against Ernst have already begun. Every president loses a nominee or two. Still, it is no small thing for senators to vote down people nominated by the president of their own party, especially for high-profile posts. Ernst has very personal and serious reasons to want a thorough vetting of Hegseth. But it’s hard to ignore the politics as Ernst sought to sidestep the attention this week. When undecided members are whipped on tough votes, they often fall into two groups — those who have found their reasons to vote no and those looking for some way to get to yes. Ernst seems to be falling into the latter. And if she gets there, it may well prove that Donald Trump and his hold over Republican voters is now smothering even the Senate’s responsibility to advise and consent.
Brendan Buck
Brendan Buck is an NBC News and MSNBC political analyst. He was previously counselor to former House Speaker Paul Ryan and press secretary to former House Speaker John Boehner. 
