President Donald Trump may not be on the ballot Tuesday, but in many places, he might as well be.
The president’s influence can be felt in several key races across the country, from candidates both parties have nominated to a referendum in California that seeks to counter Trump’s efforts to gerrymander a Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
The results will be the first major sign of how voters are responding to the president’s norm-shattering second term ahead of next year’s midterms.
Here’s a quick look at the races to watch:
Virginia governor
Who’s running: Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a centrist former House member from Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, is facing off against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s very Trumpy lieutenant governor and the first Black woman elected to statewide office in Virginia.
What it means for Trump: Virginia’s one-term limit and the state’s proximity to Washington, D.C., make the governor’s race closely watched. It’s widely seen as an indicator of voters’ thoughts on the president.
What might happen: Spanberger is heavily favored to win in a race that centrist Democratic strategists will be sure to highlight as they pitch a path forward.
New York City mayor
Who’s running: Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is facing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent) and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race and endorsed Cuomo.
What it means for Trump: The president has repeatedly criticized Mamdani and threatened to withhold federal funding and send the National Guard to New York City if he wins.
What might happen: Mamdani is favored to win in a race that will be cited by progressive strategists as a sign that Democrats need to take bolder stances.
New Jersey governor
Who’s running: Democrat Mikie Sherrill, another centrist and a member of Congress, is facing off against Trump-endorsed Jack Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker.
What it means for Trump: Ciattarelli narrowly lost four years ago, when he ran without Trump’s backing. He has the president’s endorsement now, so this will be seen as a key test of whether that helps or hurts.
What might happen: Polls show either a narrow Sherrill lead or a toss-up. Whatever happens will end up as fodder for either centrists or progressives arguing about the results in Virginia and New York City.
California’s Proposition 50
What’s on the ballot: A ballot measure backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom would adopt a Democratic redistricting plan in order to counter Texas’ Republican gerrymander.
What it means for Trump: The measure would help keep Democrats competitive in the House in next year’s midterms, which could put a legislative check on Trump.
What might happen: Polls show the measure is likely to pass, giving a boost to Newsom, who has become a thorn in Trump’s side in recent months. What’s on the ballot: A conservative-backed ballot measure would add new restrictions on voting by mail and require photo ID before casting a ballot, among other changes. What it means for Trump: The measure reads like a wish list for the kinds of voting restrictions that he has called for since losing the 2020 election. What might happen: Polls show a toss-up. A win would likely embolden Republicans to put more voting restrictions on the ballot in other states. What’s on the ballot: Three Democratic justices on the state Supreme Court face an up-or-down retention vote. Republicans have mounted an unusually aggressive campaign against them. What it means for Trump: If all three justices lose, Republicans would have a shot at winning a majority in 2027, in time to make crucial decisions about the 2028 presidential election. What might happen: Polls show a toss-up, with many voters still undecided. Judges typically win retention races, but they also rarely face much of a campaign against them. What’s on the ballot: Democratic Mayor Aftab Pureval is facing a challenge from Republican Cory Bowman in the race, which is technically for a nonpartisan post. What it means for Trump: Bowman is Vice President JD Vance’s half-brother and says he was inspired to run when he was attending the inauguration. What might happen: Pureval will easily be reelected in a city where Kamala Harris won more than three-fourths of the vote in 2024. But expect Trump to make some kind of complaint about the results.
Ryan Teague Beckwith is a newsletter editor for MS NOW. 
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