President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race was precipitated by a number of factors, but perhaps most strongly by waning support from Capitol Hill Democrats. From Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to senior House Democrats and those in competitive districts, Biden’s support from party insiders collapsed. Their thinly veiled fears were that Biden would not only lose to former President Donald Trump, but would potentially deliver historic losses for Democrats in Congress.
As MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki observed about the president’s standing in national polls upon his withdrawal, these were polling theories that will never be tested. But what we do know is congressional Democrats have now been untethered from one of the great questions that had been facing them in November.
Voters would be right to wonder what congressional Republicans have done for them these past two years.
No longer are House Democrats forced off message by having to defend the personal fitness of their presidential candidate. They can now clearly run on their agenda for the American people and can prosecute the political case against congressional Republicans. That opportunity has House Democrats excited, and rightfully so.
Consider the Republicans’ chaotic term in the congressional majority. They started this 118th Congress unable to elect a speaker of the House. They failed at the basic functions of funding the government, addressing the nation’s debt ceiling and supporting our international alliance opposing Vladimir Putin and Russian aggression. At each of these most critical junctures, it was House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and House Democrats who stepped up and governed, delivering the majority of votes for Congress to function and execute its constitutional responsibilities. The Republican response to these episodes of responsible Democratic leadership was to then topple their own House speaker and plunge the House into renewed leadership chaos before finally arriving at the hard-right Speaker Mike Johnson.
House Republicans have also governed this Congress largely devoid of any real agenda for the American people. They spent a year flirting with impeaching Biden and chasing his son Hunter Biden time and again — embarrassing themselves with deflated conspiracy theories. They formed a government weaponization committee to attack federal and state prosecutors otherwise lawfully executing their duties to seek indictments of Trump. In fact, many Republican members skipped out on their official duties in Congress in humiliating fashion, donning blue suits and red ties and rushing to the Manhattan courtroom where their political leader was eventually convicted of 34 felony counts.
Voters would be right to wonder what congressional Republicans have done for them these past two years.
Democrats, by contrast, are anxious to offer their vision to the American people — protect Social Security and Medicare, defend reproductive freedom, and fight growing economic inequality made worse by Republican tax and tariff proposals. Democrats want to share their vision for lowering prescription drug costs, securing access to health care and education for more Americans and continuing investments in infrastructure and technology. And on foreign policy, Democrats accept responsibility for defending our interests abroad just as strongly as they defend them here at home.
House Democrats now go into November on a very firm foundation, and the polls show it. In a recent memo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Democratic House candidates continue to strongly outperform their Republican opponents in fundraising and polling, and these trends are most importantly seen in their most critical races — the most competitive majority-making congressional seats, what Democrats call their “Frontline” races.
Democrats are on message, Republicans are out of touch, and the American people are paying attention.
Incumbent Democratic House members in Frontline districts now lead their Republican opponents by an average of 8 points, and these Democratic members enjoy a net favorability rating of 10 points. For Democratic candidates trying to flip currently held Republican seats in competitive districts, they are polling ahead or tied in virtually every district targeted by House Democrats, and their net favorability is a strong 7 points. Democrats are on message, Republicans are out of touch, and the American people are paying attention. House Democrats are poised to regain control of Congress. The last month of Democratic hand-wringing over Biden’s disastrous debate performance understandably distracted the nation, and it consumed the president’s party. Although polling showed no statistical change to Democrats’ standing in Congress following the debate in Atlanta, the national conversation certainly changed. It was the reason Pelosi, Schumer and others expressed such panic. That chapter is now over. House Democrats are back, and their message is clear: Vote blue to secure your fundamental rights and ensure an economy and America for all people. Democrats believe the choice is a clear one for voters. They would be right to feel enthusiastic about their prospects in November.
David Jolly
David Jolly, an MSNBC political contributor, represented Florida's 13th Congressional District as a Republican in the House from 2014 to 2017. He is the chairman of the Serve America Movement. Jolly left the Republican Party in 2018. 
