Why Hillary Clinton is airing $2 million in TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire… The Biden story isn’t going away until he announces one way or the other… Who’s in and who’s out of that first GOP debate — as of the last five national polls, including ours… NBC/WSJ/Telemundo Poll: 75% of Latinos have a negative view of Trump… Trump: “I’m not looking to take anybody out or be nasty to anybody” in Thursday’s debate… And Obama to unveil final climate/energy plan at 2:15 pm ET.
Who’s in and who’s out of that first GOP debate — as of now: Yesterday, we released new numbers on the state of the Republican presidential horse-race days before the first GOP debate. The leaders among national Republican primary voters: Trump 19%, Walker 15%, Bush 14%, Carson 10%, Cruz 9%, Huckabee 6%, and Paul 6%. And with these new numbers, here are estimates of the candidates who will make that first debate (based on being in the Top 10), according to the last five national polls:
- Trump: 19.8%
- Walker: 13.2%
- Bush: 13.0%
- Paul: 6.4%
- Carson: 6.4%
- Rubio: 6.2%
- Huckabee: 5.8%
- Cruz: 5.8%
- Christie: 3.2%
- Kasich: 3.2%
- Perry: 2.6%
- Santorum: 1.4%
- Jindal: 1.4%
- Fiorina: 0.6%
- Pataki: 0.6%
- Graham: 0.4%
- Gilmore: 0.0%
Why Hillary Clinton is airing $2 million in TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire: Late last night, the Clinton campaign announced it would begin airing on Tuesday its first TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire — one telling the story of Hillary’s mother who was abandoned as a child; the other emphasizing her work fighting for families. These two bio spots will run for five weeks at approximately $1 million in each state. And there are three reasons why the Clinton camp is airing these TV ads. One, it’s to refocus attention on her Roosevelt Island speech in June, when she first played up her mother’s story. Two, it’s to allow her to dominate the airwaves in Iowa and New Hampshire now (when there isn’t as much competition) as opposed to later in the year (when all of the campaigns will be up with ads). And three, it gives her the opportunity to improve her overall favorable numbers, which have taken a hit in recent polls.
Where does her current fav/unfav stand with all Americans? Tune in at 6:30 pm ET for the latest numbers from our national NBC/WSJ poll. It’s not fair to say these new ads are a panic move by the Clinton campaign. But they are an audible to what’s been an erosion in her numbers.
The Biden story isn’t going away until he announces one way or the other: These new ads also come after 48 hours when discussion about Vice President Joe Biden — will he run or won’t he? — has reached a fever pitch. The Clinton campaign is adamant that these ads aren’t a response to the Biden news. But then again, the Biden story has additional legs due to Clinton’s softer polling numbers. And this story isn’t going away until Biden announces one way or the other.
As NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported on NBC’s “Today,” Biden will make up his mind by the end of the summer (so by September). But if you wanted the true tell of his intentions, look no further than the fact that if he went to Iowa or New Hampshire today for political travel, he’d have no money to pay for it. The reality: Biden hasn’t hired a single 2016-related staffer and has no ‘16 fundraising apparatus (an exploratory committee, Super PAC, 527) to pay for political activity. And that Draft Biden Super PAC doesn’t really count…
NBC/WSJ/Telemundo Poll: 75% of Latinos have a negative view of Trump: Remember all of the talk from Donald Trump how he’ll win the Latino vote? Think again. Three in four Latinos say they have a negative view of Donald Trump, and more than half believe that his comments about Mexican immigrants were racist and inappropriate, according to a new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal/ Telemundo oversample of Latinos. This poll of 250 Latinos found that 75% view the real estate mogul and GOP presidential candidate unfavorably, with 61% saying that their view of him is “very negative.” Just 13% of respondents said they have a positive view of Trump. More: During his announcement speech in June, Trump said that Mexico is “sending people that have lots of problems… They are bringing drugs. They are bringing crime. They are rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”








