Bernie Sanders is expected to beat Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin Democratic primary Tuesday, but the only thing that matters is the margin. Without a decisive victory, the outcome will do little to change the trajectory of the race. If he loses, on the other hand, Sanders’ already sketchy path to the nomination could vanish entirely.
The demographics of the state — it’s 88 percent white — and its long history of progressive activism have made Wisconsin fertile ground for Sanders. So has its open primary, which allows participation from independents, who strongly favor Sanders. The senator also won neighboring Minnesota and Michigan, which have much in common Wisconsin. He’s spent far more time campaigning in the Badger State in recent days than Clinton, and has spent more money there, too.
But recent polls have shown Sanders ahead by, at most, about 5 percentage points. Sanders said Monday night he expects the race to be “very close.”
Democrats award delegates proportionally, so Sanders will need to win big to make a dent in Clinton’s 255 pledged delegates lead. That’s especially true in Wisconsin, thanks to the way the system uses congressional district to allot Tuesday’s haul.
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As Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel columnist Craig Gilbert wrote last week, “Democratic rules in Wisconsin make it almost impossible to make big delegate gains.” In 2008, for instance, Barack Obama crushed Clinton by 17-points, but netted only 10 delegates from the state.
Aware the race is unlikely to dramatically affect the delegate outcome, Clinton’s campaign seemed ready to concede the state Monday night. “We could lose Wisconsin,” her campaign said in a fundraising email to supporters. “We’re down in almost every poll in Wisconsin — tomorrow’s primary is going to be a tough fight.”
That statement should be taken with a giant grain of salt, since Clinton’s campaign has adroitly lowered expectations in previous contests, only to eek out a win and call it an upset. “I think they’re trying to depress expectations as much as possible in Wisconsin and then get as many votes as possible,” Sanders’ top strategist Tad Devine told MSNBC.
Meanwhile, the Vermont senator has done the reverse, telling massive crowds that they’re on the verge of putting him over the top in Wisconsin. Sanders has spoken to more than 38,000 supporters over the past week alone in numerous stops across the state.
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“Tomorrow, if there is a good turnout in Wisconsin, if there is a record-breaking turnout in Wisconsin, we are going to win here as well,” Sanders told 2,400 in Milwaukee Monday night.
Turnout is expected to break records Tuesday, thanks to interest in both parties’ presidential primaries and a heated Wisconsin Supreme Court race.








