Poll: Neck-and-neck 2016 races in Iowa, New Hampshire

Three weeks until the first presidential nominating contest, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running neck and neck in Iowa, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are also locked in a tight race in the Hawkeye State.What’s more, Clinton and Sanders are within the margin of error in New Hampshire, while Trump has built a 16-point lead in the same state.Those are the results of two brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls – the first NBC/WSJ/Marist early-state surveys of 2016, which for the first time measure likely voters.In Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 1, Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump by four points among likely caucus-goers, 28 percent to 24 percent – within the poll’s margin of error of plus-minus 4.6 percentage points. They’re followed by Marco Rubio at 13 percent and Ben Carson at 11 percent. No other Republican candidate gets more than 5 percent of the vote.Yet among the larger universe of potential Iowa caucus-goers, Trump actually leads Cruz by two points, 26 percent to 24 percent, suggesting that a larger turnout could benefit Trump in the state. (Back in October’s NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, Trump was at 24 percent among potential caucus-goers, Carson at 19 percent, and Cruz and Rubio at just 6 percent.)On the Democratic side, front-runner Hillary Clinton holds just a three-point lead among likely voters over Bernie Sanders, 48 percent to 45 percent, while Martin O’Malley gets 5 percent.But among potential Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton’s advantage grows to six points, 49 percent to 43 percent. (In October, Clinton’s lead here was 11 points, 47 percent to 36 percent.)New Hampshire: Four Establishment GOP candidates split up almost 45 percent of voteIn New Hampshire, which holds its presidential primaries on Feb. 9, Trump gets support from 30 percent of likely Republican primary voters.He’s followed by Marco Rubio at 14 percent, Chris Christie at 12 percent, Ted Cruz at 10 percent, and John Kasich and Jeb Bush tied at 9 percent each.

That means that the four Republicans vying in the establishment lane of the GOP contest – Rubio, Christie, Kasich and Bush – are dividing up 44 percent of the total vote, according to the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll.The GOP numbers are essentially unchanged among the larger pool of potential Republican voters in New Hampshire.In the Democratic race, Sanders is ahead of Clinton by four points among likely primary voters, 50 percent to 46 percent, which is within the margin of error of plus-minus 4.8 percentage points. O’Malley is at 1 percent.Among the larger universe of potential Democratic primary voters, Sanders’ lead increases to six points, 50 percent to 44 percent. In October, the Vermont senator held a nine-point lead over Clinton. Sanders outperforms Clinton in general-election matchupsThe NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also show that Sanders outperforms Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups in these two presidential battleground states – something other surveys have found, too.In Iowa: