Americans are now split on who they think will win the 2016 presidential election—signaling that many now think that Donald Trump has a serious chance against Hillary Clinton, the current Democratic front-runner, in the fall. In the minds of voters, Trump’s chances of winning the presidential race have improved, with 47 percent saying they think Clinton will win the general election contest and 46 percent thinking Trump will win. This is a significant change from last week, when a majority of voters put their odds on Clinton over Trump (51 percent to 42 percent).
Last Thursday, Donald Trump crossed the 1,237 delegate threshold and officially clinched the Republican nomination for president. This came during the same time that the State Department’s Office of the Inspector General released their audit report on findings related to Clinton’s use of a private email server.
The general election match-up remains almost the same from last week, with Clinton holding a 2-point lead over Trump. These results are according to the latest from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll conducted online from May 23 through May 29.
When looking at this support by different demographic groups, Clinton continues to enjoy a large amount of support among women—54 percent to Trump’s 37 percent. Trump, however, expanded his support among men this week to 15 points from 10 points last week. He now beats Clinton among men 54 percent to 39 percent.
Black voters continue to support Clinton by an overwhelming 79-point margin (87 percent to 8 percent). Hispanics support Clinton over Trump by 29 points (61 percent to 32 percent). Trump is the preferred candidate among white voters by 14 points over Clinton (53 percent to 39 percent). These numbers are consistent with margins from last week’s tracking poll.
Over the last two election cycles, when a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee, that person has gained a boost in the public polls. Trump’s numbers moved up slightly after he became the presumptive nominee on the Republican side. If history repeats itself, the Democratic presumptive nominee will get a similar bump once that happens.
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online May 23 through May 29, 2016 among a national sample of 14,797 adults aged 18 and over, including 12,969 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.2 percentage points. For full results and methodology for this weekly tracking poll, please click here.
Stephanie Psyllos
Hannah Hartig
Susan Del Percio is a Republican strategist and a political analyst for MS NOW.